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即將離任的《經濟學人》北京分社社長麥傑斯（James Miles）在最新一期《經濟學人》撰文〈歷史的教訓〉（The Lessons of History），對照六四事件前後與現今中國的政局。 1 l, ?- n1 W: w$ \! O $ C7 q+ a, {6 u" b- Ytvb now,tvbnow,bttvb在六四之後成長的新一代認為，若非當年鎮壓，中國不能像今日般「超英趕美」，成為全球第二大經濟體。但這種理解，忽視了令中共決策癱瘓、使當日示威不斷壯大的中共黨內派系鬥爭。麥傑斯引述鄧小平認為，蘇聯解體的主因是當權者無法使人民富裕起來。使中國經濟起飛的原因，是鄧小平汲取蘇聯解體的教訓：鄧於1990年代初「南巡」，竭力克服保守派的強橫阻力，全力推動經濟發展，而不是針對和平抗議行動的鎮壓。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb& ~" u9 K' a2 {( i& t) g
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鄧小平當日之言「中國要出問題，還是出在黨內」，至今仍然貼切。今時今日，習近平被視為繼鄧小平之後權勢最盛的中國領導人，但薄熙來乃至周永康兩案顯示，黨內鬥爭仍無日無之；周永康受查一事遲遲未正式公佈，北京政界流傳著黨內大老出面阻撓習近平的傳言。隨著習近平繼續反腐，他在高層內的敵人會越來越多；而改革經濟需要實施的政策，也會引起民眾不滿。為八九示威者所不齒的貪腐，今日變本加厲；而隨著中國經濟發展，群體性事件亦越發頻繁。- b: ~# C$ K5 P! H8 I
0 E% h/ L4 R k& B: G25年前的六月四日清晨，為另一家傳媒當記者麥傑斯亦身在現場，看著鎮壓過後火起處處的長安大街，質疑中共還能否走上正途；而當年的《經濟學人》則形容中國「已在政變、反政變與內戰的邊緣」。25年過去，末日預言沒有實現，中共並未倒台；但今日中國面對的政治、經濟乃至國際問題越來越嚴峻，中共若要撐過接下來的25年，則是未知之數。公仔箱論壇3 y- A+ t3 t. n! k8 n
) k1 D3 c5 V$ f( H0 p0 g% Y8 {9 \5.39.217.77:8898TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。0 n. v3 }+ q2 [$ V 作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-5-31 11:50 AM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-5-31 11:58 AM 編輯 0 i- J: i1 R6 Z0 ?8 n
, [, n8 o( c7 B9 G! L$ L' F Remembering Tiananmen ! u& W) E0 A0 }; m. g5.39.217.77:8898The lessons of historytvb now,tvbnow,bttvb+ }7 d4 V3 {( p; \ tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb( h- m! x6 L0 d2 q- l2 m
James Miles $ J4 b0 h8 H( _/ ?. c1 W; y" D * t) {8 a. t' S$ P8 ~! ^As our bureau chief leaves China, he reflects on the crushing of the protests he witnessed 25 years ago, and what has transpired since 7 h$ J; u- S8 H" n4 Mtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb + s. b: }& K: w# r0 `! ?/ | UTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 : q! F! X4 t! L- Y* h5.39.217.77:8898 ) p: l. g* _$ b% R( [- ?% s" CEVEN after the Chinese army moved into Tiananmen Square on the night of June 3rd 1989, and cleared it of the detritus left by the students who had occupied it for most of the previous seven weeks,it was several days before observers were certain who was in control of China.Your correspondent, looking down Beijing’s central boulevard, Chang’an Avenue,at a maze of still-burning barricades a day after the bloody operation, was not alone in wondering whether the Communist Party could ever heal. This newspaper,with which he was not then linked, summed up a common view: “This week China looked into the abyss of coup, counter-coup and civil war”. Foreign doomsayers were proved wrong. But even after 25 years of relative stability, it is still wise to be cautious about the cohesion of Chinese politics. * T& E1 f$ d& ~! N' v3 p( E公仔箱論壇公仔箱論壇6 P- r, x9 L: q4 F( \
It was not just foreign observers who were given to apocalyptic musings at the time. “If the rebels had had their way,there would have been a civil war,” Deng Xiaoping told a visiting Chinese-American physicist, Tsung-Dao Lee, three months after the army crackdown that left hundreds, if not thousands, dead. Thanks to strenuous efforts by the Communist Party to erase memories of what happened (see article), many in China now have only a dim understanding of the history of the protests in Tiananmen Square and the nationwide unrest they triggered. But Deng’s analysis is remarkably close to the mainstream among the generation of young urban residents who have grown up since: if they have heard of the 1989 protests, many feel that, though the killings may have been bad,the army’s resolute action helped to create the stability that allowed China’s economy to grow from one that was then smaller than Britain’s into the world’s second-largest./ g# y0 c8 R) d
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This argument, however, glosses over the factional infighting within the party that paralysed decision-making and allowed the protests to grow to the scale they did. Even after Tiananmen, Deng appeared to recognise that political stability was by no means assured. By1992, then retired, he had concluded that the collapse of the Soviet Union and its allies was mainly attributable to their failure to make citizens richer. To avoid a similar fate for China, he went on his famous “southern tour” to drum up support for a fresh round of economic reform. It was this bold move, in the face of stiff conservative resistance, rather than the crushing of largely peaceful dissent, that laid the groundwork for China’s prosperity today. As he tottered round southern China, berating conservatives and calling for the liberation of China’s economy from ideological shackles, he remarked: “If any problem occurs in China, it will arise from within the party.” His words remain apt. M. k0 \2 x# J1 _4 \/ P: B% r) Y3 g4 ^" _! b. N
Not since the collapse of the Qing dynasty in1911 has China enjoyed such a prolonged period of stability as it has between Tiananmen and today (barring a handful of high-level purges and numerous street protests, most of them isolated and triggered by local grievances). Yet political risk is as important to bear in mind as the wobbles that are causing growing numbers of observers to worry about China’s economy. Neither kind of risk is grounds for immediate alarm. The government appears sufficiently in control of the economy’s levers (not least through ownership of the main commercial banks)and has sufficient assets at its disposal to prevent a sharp slowdown, at least for another few years. But one important lesson of Tiananmen is that politics in China has a capacity to surprise. Your correspondent recalls respected analysts in the months before June 1989 pooh-poohing rumours of a serious rift within the leadership.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。* h; m+ N& `- d0 C
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* \: B1 Q1 h: Y" M- F) [* yThere are few such rumours today. Mr Xi is often described as the strongest leader in China since Deng, and he has been moving fast to consolidate his power (he has set up powerful new organs to oversee national security and economic reform, and has taken personal command of them). But there have been hints, both before and since the handover of power to Mr Xi in 2012, that politics at the top remains prone to strife. Eight months before Mr Xi took over, a fellow member of the ruling Politburo, Bo Xilai, was purged; ostensibly for corruption and abuse of power but also, many observers believe, because he threatened Mr Xi’s future grip on power. The mopping up continues. Mr Xi is now trying to eradicate the influence of Mr Bo’s powerful patron, Zhou Yongkang, who was the country’s security chief until here tired in 2012. Mr Zhou is being secretly investigated for corruption, the highest-ranking leader to be targeted on such grounds since the party took power in 1949. Rumours abound in Beijing that Mr Xi is encountering resistance from other retired elders who fear that he is rocking the boat.5 f# S% X( X8 {: [$ Y
( `+ Z# X9 G3 n8 |+ T* t' G6 R' A; J9 k7 P公仔箱論壇It is extremely difficult to gauge the level of political stress that these developments are causing. Official statistics can be vague and misleading, but there is no concerted effort, as there is in politics, to keep the outside world in ignorance of pertinent facts. Contacts between Chinese leaders and foreign journalists were very limited before Tiananmen. They were curtailed even further after it. Not since November 1987has a general secretary of the party given the foreign press corps an unfettered opportunity to ask questions about his policies. Your correspondent vividly recalls the exhilaration of that occasion in the Great Hall of the People, when the newly appointed party chief, Zhao Ziyang, raised glasses with foreign journalists and fielded impromptu questions in an unprecedented display of openness. It would have been wrong to read too much into it, however. Zhaosaid that those who believed conservatives and reformers were at loggerheads would “make one mistake after another” in their analysis. He himself was purged by the conservatives during the Tiananmen upheaval and spent the rest of his life under house arrest. % e9 j9 c5 P5 N3 \" {tvb now,tvbnow,bttvbTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。, s9 A% _9 E' N ?% |
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Mr Xi admits that economic reforms have entered “deep water”. As he put it on a trip to Europe last month: “We must get ready to go into the mountains, being fully aware that there may be tigers to encounter.” These tigers could include others at the top. Perhaps to avoid a Zhao-like fate (Zhao was the last party chief to put political reform high on his agenda), Mr Xi has begun his leadership with two parallel crackdowns, one on corruption and the other on political dissent. Part of his strategy, many believe, is to scare corrupt officials into compliance with his reforms while preventing dissidents from fanning the flames of discontent in a society that has undergone profound and wrenching change over the past decade alongside broad economic growth (see chart). : c$ B; w: P1 jtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb$ f( b# S+ }! a, N" Q6 u/ a 公仔箱論壇& F" c( M% r. K: L
Mr Xi has three new social forces to contend with that grew to critical mass under his predecessor: a huge middle class, an equally large underclass of rural migrants, and online social media that have enabled discontents to connect and communicate with remarkable ease, in spite of vigorous censorship. He can probably prevent street demonstrations from coalescing into anything like the1989 unrest. Even if the economy were to slow sharply, a couple of years of stagnation might not pose a great threat to social stability. ; ?7 E l5 M; O" ~TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 7 M3 Y @, c+ v( u7 k# H k" z4 ctvb now,tvbnow,bttvbAfter all, China has experienced slumps before. Tens of millions lost their jobs in the late 1990s as the regime closed down loss-making state-owned enterprises. Protests did erupt, but most were small. After the global financial crisis in 2008, millions of migrant workers were laid off from export industries. Most, however, had ties to plots in the countryside to which they returned for a few months before finding new work when manufacturing picked up. Despite the current slowdown, employment is holding up well. If the economy were to slow more dramatically, many migrant workers could again melt back into the villages.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。5 Q) q9 f0 S' g. K
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There are also reasons to worry about external dangers as China flexes its muscles to assert territorial claims in the East and South China Seas. Mr Xi appears to have abandoned Deng’s post-Tiananmen dictum that China should “hide its capacities and bide its time”. His latest territory-marking manoeuvre was the installation of an oil rig earlier this month in waters claimed by Vietnam. This triggered bloody anti-Chinese riots in Vietnam, but Mr Xi appears unconcerned by the risks. His moves seem calculated to avoid direct military conflict, but if a clash were to occur he might stand to gain politically at home. After Tiananmen the party launched a campaign to boost “patriotic education” among students. The aim was to portray the party as the embodiment of Chinese nationalism. It appears to have rubbed off. Young Chinese especially applaud Mr Xi’s more robust stance towards Japan, a country they are taught to abhor. ' L; n& @+ {7 V9 m4 h H- [! o8 D) H+ p5 j7 U+ z F7 G5.39.217.77:8898Elite politics, however, is more of a wildcard. The Bo affair in 2012, which only came to light thanks to the extraordinary flight of his police chief to an American consulate in the south-western city of Chengdu, was a sharp reminder of how erratic it can be. Both Mr Bo’s case and that of his mentor, Mr Zhou, have exposed the power and wealth of family networks within the leadership and their extensive influence in business. It will take all Mr Xi’s strength to keep high-level corruption in check. The protesters in 1989 were enraged by it even then; they would be astonished today. In a case that came to light in the Chinese press this month,an official was found to have 100m yuan ($16m) in banknotes stashed at his home. 1 g! I6 e- Q8 |' J6 ltvb now,tvbnow,bttvbtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb5 C0 l4 i7 H' ]8 o
Mr Xi’s sweeping campaign against corruption,the toughest in China in many years, will make him powerful enemies. So too will his efforts to expose big state-owned enterprises to greater competition and rein in profligate local governments. He has called for “decisive results”by 2020 in his drive for economic reform. Yet this will require measures that could make him unpopular with the public, such as the implementation of a property tax that will infuriate the better off. After Mr Bo’s arrest, rumours circulated on Chinese social media of an attempted coup by Mr Zhou. The reports proved fanciful, but they suggested that some Chinese at least are prepared to imagine extreme scenarios.5.39.217.77:8898% g# H& U7 o! M$ n" R
6 D) J+ _5 J# Y* LYour correspondent leaves China believing that the party has a good chance of maintaining its grip on power during Mr Xi’s remaining eight years at the top. But the risks—political, economic and international—are growing. The party has proved unexpectedly adept at tackling a series of crises since 1989. But it will need to be even more agile if it is to remain in power for another 25 years. 6 e+ E7 q3 r# I0 b7 g3 sTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb4 F$ b, h* q7 w8 R# U
公仔箱論壇5 @: X9 g0 c/ \6 K: g* ` 作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-5-31 12:07 PM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-5-31 12:09 PM 編輯 TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。8 W5 e$ S0 R8 V/ A% \; q, \& k" V
) T. l% O! v: U% ^/ V" b公仔箱論壇北京方面，北大等高校學生響應號召，出席全球華人大遊行，人數約10萬人，已比早前的遊行規模縮減不少。在天安門廣場靜坐的學生，人數亦減少，外地來京的學生認為須繼續堅守，但北京學生已暫時離開廣場。經舉手表決後，決定繼續靜坐。廣場指揮部總指揮柴玲說，要靜坐至6月20日人大召開為止。! l6 [) D2 M9 @$ z. _8 N. z
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。6 l7 g5 L: p! c) f& {+ b8 ?0 j, f4 O
當日上午，擔任總書記趙紫陽政治秘書的鮑彤，本來前往參加政治局常委會議，但途中被捕，被送往秦城監獄。當局亦對趙紫陽嚴加看管，趙紫陽開始被軟禁。公仔箱論壇7 a2 g+ p6 ^5 u; F5 ]4 y
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# q3 N( y* V) Q" D9 |公仔箱論壇 $ m5 d0 r% e# c/ R公仔箱論壇廿五年前今日：民主女神像現身天安門廣場tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb/ ?" R% H1 ^" S! R" T9 S
2014-5-29 - G! x+ K. b! k1 ytvb now,tvbnow,bttvb5 E* m% {+ @5 E- o1 B/ }* x ( z/ }% k3 ~1 L7 {5 ]中央美術學院等學生，搭建民主女神像。 圖：64memo.com5.39.217.77:88981 p& V) Y% h* S5 b$ p' o
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25年前的今日，1989年5月29日，北京戒嚴第十日。天安門廣場指揮部總指揮柴玲，因未能協調北京與外地學生何時撤出廣場的分歧，與另外4名常委集體請辭，由北京大學自治籌委會主席楊濤接任。柴玲在當日的會議上提出請辭，逾300名學生代表投票後拒絕，惟柴玲去意已決，以身體虛弱及希望由更勝任者接任為由，堅持辭職。她勉勵廣場上的同學抗爭到底，表示「要為爭取民主的目標努力，不要爭權奪利」。北高聯最後決定，在6月20日人大常委會議開會前，都不會不會撤出廣場。 3 T4 Z. u& _7 j公仔箱論壇 0 V. F i( Z( k3 f5 y7 ]9 o9 C# atvb now,tvbnow,bttvb香港方面，超過50名殘疾人士遊行到新華社香港分社請願，並慰問在新華社門外靜坐的學生。時任人大常委霍英東希望盡快召開人大緊急會議，商討局勢。藝人陳欣健批評早前無綫電視播放《民主歌聲獻中華》時畏首畏尾，將認為敏感的說話刪掉。 8 z+ q# u7 {5 r$ Htvb now,tvbnow,bttvb ! U$ w7 |( f$ WTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。中大女學生 廣場設物資聯絡站 L! p7 W) m, b. \tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb 1 n4 l6 x3 H! X! e( d: u
天安門廣場和北京是日沒有出現示威遊行。香港中文大學女學生潘毅等人，當日在天安門廣場東北角設立「香港支援大陸民運物資聯絡站」，提供香港人捐助的2百頂小帳篷等物資，廣場上搭起了許多彩色小帳篷，每頂帳篷可容納5人左右。香港專上學生聯會赴京聲援團決定，暫時凍結聲援北京學運的百多萬港幣的捐款。副秘書長奚小英解釋，由於天安門廣場指揮部的財政結構過於鬆散，學運本身出現嚴重分裂，暫時沒有一個值得信賴的機構。 , b7 C& x' W! D4 ?8 B( ITVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 7 _' K" v/ }! R. b/ s& k3 {) I- }公仔箱論壇晚上10時許，中央美術學院等8所北京藝術院校幾百名學生，將「民主女神」的石膏雕像分塊，用6輛三輪車運到廣場國旗桿南邊。翌日凌晨，學生開始搭建，將塑像逐塊連結，安裝過程引起上千人圍觀。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。, s0 B% o$ B( n; c
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0 U: o% x. F* c% p1 e廿五年前今日：數十萬群眾圍觀民主女神像 s- U6 H- {+ @, ?' X+ T3 @
2014-5-30 $ N- p+ Z9 l6 h$ X# f7 F! u W5 H* h) W 9 I" q$ A) z3 ltvb now,tvbnow,bttvb$ i7 D# p, L% z4 \% B4 F6 v# d, p$ N
圖：64memo.com 6 e" ^5 U* E% G3 l 4 s, s$ [" W$ }TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。25年前的今日，1989年5月30日，北京戒嚴第十一日。經過16小時的裝嵌加工，身高7米的民主女神像，在清晨正式矗立於天安門廣場，與城門上的毛澤東畫像遙遙對視。數十萬市民聞訊而至，一睹「民主女神」的風采。但是樹立女神像的行為，引起天安門管理處不滿，認為場地是莊嚴肅穆的地方，將「女神」像在場內樹立，有損國家尊嚴。 % _! ] D; Y: c4 n 7 _) m( @4 i. T X: c9 p' M$ k香港方面，教聯會理事長程介南帶同為數50萬元的第二批捐款上京，近30名柴灣區義工機構及教會代表到新華社香港分社請願，並遞交一幅過百米的超長橫額，上面貼有近2萬個柴灣居民對北京學運的心聲。8 ]' Y; D' m0 }
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當日，堅持靜坐的學生決定無限期靜坐。廣場指揮部召開記者會，代表李錄說，政府只有答應4項要求：包括撤銷戒嚴令、撤回軍隊、保證不對參加這場運動的任何人進行秋後算賬、實現新聞自由，他們才能與政府對話。 $ X6 T+ C/ c) g& w) {$ P公仔箱論壇 8 u! W4 z1 a- R3 W7 G$ L5 y
另外，首都工人自治聯會3名工人領袖錢玉民、沈銀漢、白東平先後被公安人員拘捕，近300名工人和學生前往公安局示威，要求放人，包圍公安局7小時。以電單車為學生通風報信的「飛虎隊」其中11名隊員也在同日被捕。近百北大男生加入剃頭行動，抗議政府「無法無天」。另外，上海市委書記江澤民下午乘專機抵京，他在傍晚被元老陳雲、李先念接見，得知將出任中共總書記。 5 Y4 D: I! q: @% `tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb9 {3 p( {- b% j D9 H9 S
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& h8 t2 P- F6 f9 }) ]9 b* C9 r5.39.217.77:889825年前的今日，1989年5月31日，北京戒嚴第十二日，保守勢力動員民眾示威。3千名工人、農民和學生響應當局號召上街，支持總理李鵬、舉起「支持戒嚴令」等標語，又焚燒民運人士方勵之的假人像。事後他們獲動員單位賦予半天假期和雪糕作獎勵。另外當局收緊傳媒控制，《工人日報》一篇題為〈新聞要有敢說真話的勇氣〉的文章被抽起。公仔箱論壇9 Q1 o( l& W f7 c8 T- ^9 f
' g* M5 v+ g" s- i( mtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb香港方面，工聯會理事長鄭耀棠以全國人大代表身份，與香港其他5名全國人大代表一起舉行記者會，要求中國召開特別人大會議，承認學生愛國民主運動，解除北京戒嚴。支聯會宣布，籌得2千萬捐款支援北京學生。公仔箱論壇3 B2 Q E+ p9 h s3 u
6 ~: u r, M1 G: g) z3 f中央軍委主席鄧小平、國家主席楊尚昆批准了戒嚴指揮部關於部隊進入北京市區執行戒嚴任務的實施方案，京城的戒嚴部隊官兵數目開始增加。重點警衞目標區的戒嚴部隊官兵開始穿上軍服準備執勤，不少便衣警察在天安門廣場內巡邏。非軍裝人員接管了北京火車站的查票工作，各大傳媒機構大樓的出入口、火車站、機場均駐有士兵。5.39.217.77:8898: N4 c& \ o. S
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