. f5 `$ V6 d% Z7 P# F$ O) W X$ m5 J《每日電訊報》的評論文章，則聚焦於港銀的內地貸款急增風險，擔心內地的違約潮若蔓延，會波及香港銀行。穆迪上月已率先對4家港銀發出負面評級展望，擔心其內地貸款增長過快。例如剛賣盤的永隆，過去4年貸款予內地的比例，便由8%升急升至去年中的40%。 ) N( ~: Y0 B- K, C5.39.217.77:8898 7 r& m) v) V7 @ x W為何一份英國報章會關注香港銀行體系，原來是英國央行也開始提防，內地的問題會透過匯豐（0005）及渣打（2888）這些在當地也舉足輕重的銀行，倒過來影響英國的金融業。去年英國央行要求兩家銀行進行壓力測試時，已叫他們重點測試中國及香港的衝擊。以匯豐為例，英國央行要求該行模擬內地樓市跌5成、港股及港樓市跌5成下，銀行的財政狀況會如何惡化。 # R9 s1 c; X p: `9 \公仔箱論壇 6 n8 ]" m9 T3 x9 J+ R& _無論以上不利因素，有幾殺到埋身，但香港銀行不斷在中國業務上押重注，肯定令風險變得更集中，一次意外，泥足深陷，要避都避唔切。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb) ^& w6 z1 @% p7 x4 V
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- ~/ g3 Y1 g1 ^" g7 {- g3 Ftvb now,tvbnow,bttvbFinancial typhoon warning for Hong Kong. K) Y0 x2 Z4 E E e- v9 K4 l
By Harry Wilson: l, L7 E- @, O& }9 i" W; n
5.39.217.77:8898# j, C$ A9 R5 r+ ~7 @/ T The city is showing worrying signs of being at the centre of the next financial crisis + O9 h6 b/ f5 J8 CTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 ' G* _$ K% y1 D; y* g. X & h, e* ^- M) H" r! O3 q% t5.39.217.77:8898 " }# \( p; l$ n9 Stvb now,tvbnow,bttvbOffshore subsidiaries of China’s largest state-controlled banks are using Hong Kong as abase for sourcing foreign currency funding to pump back into the domestic economy / z" p! a O" s% r7 {0 I8 stvb now,tvbnow,bttvb 3 @! N- ^7 d6 _) \TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。公仔箱論壇. ~) g) _- H. [9 C% r# c
The restaurants are fully booked, the shops are packed, the financial markets are booming. For Hong Kong things have, on the face of it, never been so good. + k4 j+ o1 [- x公仔箱論壇8 o2 V F% y+ o% G& h& c
“One country, two systems” has proved to be a good deal for the former British island colony that today has become a financial centre, not just to rival its old ruler but to eclipse it.公仔箱論壇( P, r9 o$ I/ b, `9 n7 r7 v# L
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Work in London as a middle-ranking investment banker and you can hope to earn about £286,000 a year in salary and bonuses. Do the same job in Hong Kong and you can earn an extra £30,000. % M% y. r( ?: ?5 n8 l' n( K; b! G' L5.39.217.77:8898公仔箱論壇* |# r# L: q- ~1 p
Take into account the city state’s low personal tax rate and you are looking at a considerably more lucrative career.An attractive prospect as long as you are not too bothered by the dire airpollution. * C) u2 l; `& A0 I! T* p9 [7 Ltvb now,tvbnow,bttvb* G) Z" e# A5 F H$ I" ?& q
9 t' i0 r( [, i4 R3 P5.39.217.77:8898“It has shops to rival New York and offshore banking services to match Geneva,” says one Hong Kong-based investment banker who long ago left London for Asia.5.39.217.77:8898! R, _! d4 Y% ]4 T
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Last year, a record 54 million tourists, most of them from the Chinese mainland, thronged through the island’s increasingly jammed shopping malls, while millionaires and billionaires from the People’s Republic bought up luxury properties, feeding a real estate boom to match any seen in the West. 公仔箱論壇% o, {. I- ~- T+ @7 D5 {
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 M% Z0 E {* W7 w
The Chinese influx, while profitable, has not been to the taste of all the territory’s citizens, who blame “the locusts” for pushing up home prices and forcing them out of central districts. ' d& |. ?' d8 g8 | V. C
1 P7 N% r' d( U# JAt the same time, Hong Kong has the continued to hold the dubious distinction of topping The Economist’s “crony-capitalism”index, with billionaires estimated to have squirrelled away fortunes equivalent to nearly 60pc of GDP, more than treble the level in second-placed Russia. # H! W r9 X1 Y- `3 J+ a3 E公仔箱論壇The boom, therefore, is not one that has been universally applauded or universally shared, adding to the sense of an unbalanced economy. 1 _, I, r( s5 f& x0 p6 M* e
With every boom there is also the ever-present spectre of bust. Hong Kong knows a thing or two about this and its modern financial history has been marked by a series of spectacular bubbles followed by huge crashes. . [4 d5 W' E) Q; Y* M& ZTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。1 B; w2 j* y! t0 N0 I
Duncan Innes-Ker, an Asia analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, has followed Hong Kong’s ups and downs for several years and says the present boom is the natural consequence of the West’s and particularly the American response to the crisis. 公仔箱論壇1 i! T$ G8 ^6 ]) `8 n
o" a x, X3 e# e2 U5.39.217.77:8898“When you get low US interest rates you get a property bubble in Hong Kong. To my mind, this looks like the latest in a cycle of boom and busts,” says Innes-Ker. 5.39.217.77:8898, X5 j V: _! D! j( y- L4 w% M
9 o$ y, T3 L" s5.39.217.77:8898However, Asianomics, a Hong Kong-based research firm, thinks the current upcycle is masking the tell-tale signs of a sharp and possibly unprecedented correction. 公仔箱論壇2 g0 |8 Z4 f( L: y1 E L8 @
! x1 I1 l. ^) M) O$ B公仔箱論壇“Hong Kong is in the path of the typhoon developing on the mainland,” says Sharmila Whelan, an analyst at Asianomics. 4 M5 o: x2 S. l" b( k& u) v' ^5 k
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“A nasty downturn in China and a sudden sharp correction in the Hong Kong property market would severely buffet the territory’s economy. China’s problems have become insurmountable and the likelihood that 2014 will prove the year of reckoning is growing,” says Whelan.公仔箱論壇% m* c6 A# `7 A0 c8 ?
She and her colleagues last month published a comprehensive analysis of Hong Kong’s current position and concluded that a bust was already apparent and that its cause was the same as that of the boom:China. 2 |" f2 G/ d: s P2 E5.39.217.77:8898 4 q8 R* N& D/ [+ [* H9 |To see why, you have to look closely at the changes that have taken place in the financial relationship between Hong Kong and China since the crash of 2008. tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb j2 m1 p& e% f2 z& O3 p1 G2 Y9 R7 X5 ?
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Before the crisis, China had never represented more than 10pc of the total external claims of Hong Kong-based financial institutions, but with the implosion of the West, the island’s exposure to the mainland has rocketed and, as of late last year, stood at 49pcof claims. : t; e. s% F7 d8 K5 P* ?1 M& `5.39.217.77:8898 " m) N, ?& O" z9 @2 a) p9 MTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Much of the rise has come from the rapid growth of the offshore subsidiaries of China’s largest state-controlled banks,which have increasingly used Hong Kong as a base for sourcing foreign currency funding to pump back into the domestic economy. 1 g/ _! W7 S2 y I) { ! v5 N; e. r3 x7 m- h. \* `; ETVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。This has been accelerated by the People’s Bank of China’s clampdown on renminbi lending, which has led Chinese banks and companies to borrow money cheaply offshore, mainly in dollars, to invest at home at higher rates of interest. 公仔箱論壇+ w, n9 M+ J& r' ~- [
' j; z4 z5 j3 y2 U. Q5 @# V, I1 p' eMoody’s last month issued a “negative”outlook on the Hong Kong-based operations of three out of five of the larger banks, including those of China Construction Bank and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), over the rapid growth in their loan books. ' s% C9 N% r+ `TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。3 }9 O7 F2 I4 b/ I; s
One of the most extreme examples is Wing Lung Bank, which is currently being taken over by Singapore-based Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation, which has almost doubled its lending in the last four years as it ramped up its mainland loan book from 8pc of total loans to 40pc by the middle of 2013. 公仔箱論壇8 P8 @* s6 G8 T: a$ t
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。5 B( D- i" P! B& j2 }6 S
This has helped feed the growth in China over the last five years of the largest and most rapid expansion in credit in history that has transformed the People’s Republic of China into the world’s second largest economy on the back of a construction and manufacturing boom without precedent. 5.39.217.77:88988 B8 s7 @ P" [% W- o2 c
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“This is a PRC town,” says one senior Hong Kong-based banker. “A decade ago if you heard someone speaking Mandarin you assumed they had accidentally walked over the border, today you can’t get a good job unless you speak it.” 4 I5 y! J' \( E( ]+ R( b R公仔箱論壇公仔箱論壇! u7 N" |, A0 f" z! M
Andrew Scott, professor of economics at London Business School, says the danger to Hong Kong from its exposure to a Chinese crash is clear. “Hong Kong banks are definitely exposed to the mainland through significant lending and are very dependent on the People’s Republic of China central bank for liquidity in renminbi. ! N8 c* B/ V2 R5.39.217.77:8898 7 ^9 R2 Z" k* A! ~% Ztvb now,tvbnow,bttvb“So a real estate crisis in the PRC would have a major impact on Hong Kong bank balance sheets and GDP. Of course, if a PRC crisis meant less Western money flowing into China that would also affect Hong Kong,” he says. , ]- x! t3 `7 ?7 k+ P4 D * ?' X9 l- N' \4 Otvb now,tvbnow,bttvbThe problems of Hong Kong may seem a long way from the UK, but with two major London-listed and regulated banks still big players in its financial system, HSBC and Standard Chartered, what is happening in the territory is of close interest to the British authorities. * } \$ a; H% u) B$ o9 |% etvb now,tvbnow,bttvb + n& e4 h& W0 N1 Atvb now,tvbnow,bttvbLast year’s Bank of England stress tests on HSBC and Standard Chartered focused predominately on the impact of a Chinese and Hong Kong financial crisis to the exclusion of almost all other risks. 5.39.217.77:8898, y! ?6 p8 {4 s) j
+ t+ L# p2 S2 G5 C/ `$ N公仔箱論壇In the case of HSBC, the lender was told to model for a halving in Hong Kong property and stock market values, as well as a 50pc reduction in mainland property. 7 V& ?+ ^; r# Y" [" [公仔箱論壇9 A: L" u* R# p8 x1 b
Even HSBC’s house broker, Credit Suisse,appears alarmed at the storm clouds gathering over China and recently cut its recommendation on the bank’s shares from “buy” to “sell”, warning about the potential unwind of the dollar-renminbi “carry” trade. 5.39.217.77:88989 o6 x2 _, L- D: a7 B
" @9 q1 ^" E& `公仔箱論壇Although neither HSBC nor Standard Chartered are likely to have lent much directly to mainland Chinese businesses the issue is more a question of whether they have lent to financial institutions that have lent to businesses that could be hit hard in the event of a severe downturn. 5 w6 x5 V E) b: E3 o. Y公仔箱論壇Victor Wang at Credit Suisse points out that it is almost impossible to distinguish “real” trade financing from “carry trade”, but estimates that the speculative trading could be worth at least $200bn (£120.5bn). 3 r s7 |5 N/ y# C$ l % g2 J+ A* v8 i8 _' C' Y, R公仔箱論壇Hong Kong’s financial supervisor is widely seen as one of the world’s best macro prudential regulators, but Innes-Ker questions whether even the super-savvy Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) can save the territory from the crisis that could be unleashed if China’s credit bubble were to burst in an uncontrollable fashion. TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。7 a F# z+ j- B% N
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 m0 Z3 M' c9 U% G
“The biggest risk is that you’ve got a financial sector that is several times the size of the economy and you have to question whether the authority’s ability to step in is relatively constrained,”he says. 0 g+ w2 M# K8 U P; `+ e: i6 n
% W6 k* m0 N8 [% o) v+ atvb now,tvbnow,bttvbOthers are more sanguine about the risks. ' s3 Q$ A+ l( Q! C: Q+ i; V8 hTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。5 b: ?; X8 |- ~6 E
“The Chinese economy is so controlled they will be able to manage any issues. The idea that the authorities don’t see these problems is ridiculous. If something is happening it is because they tolerate it,” says one Hong-Kong based banker. TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。' t& M0 X9 y) U0 G
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。: M! q) K8 A- a; M9 |
Boom or bust, Hong Kong is in for a rollercoaster ride. 作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-4-7 12:29 PM
H股萬億短債殺埋身 ; g4 E1 l- w6 v8 ctvb now,tvbnow,bttvb 7 Y7 j' \4 ~! P, q6 W- y
【蘋果統計】( }* H& X$ v3 Y. W
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。1 G4 |% ]7 U) ^. O. u, w0 I( V6 D
國企近萬億元（人民幣．下同）短債殺埋身！業績期剛過，本報統計非金融類H指成份股成績，發現平均淨負債率已逼近七成，按年再升5個百分點，不少短債比例更急升，總金額急速飆三成，至9,135億元，佔總債務逾半。分析憂慮，利率改革下內地息口趨升，過往在資金市場佔盡優勢的國企，未來亦難免要在還款及融資上受壓，融資成本將有蠶食盈利之虞，或成為內地經濟信心持續低迷的死穴，股價亦恐跑輸大市。 # O7 J: @8 o" z5 r% }5.39.217.77:8898記者：林靜 黃尹華 ; Q3 P e8 r- ~6 r" L+ T: C8 A m9 a" @ TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。1 q, j4 _% o6 R9 E8 _
撇除內銀、內險及證券三大金融類板塊後，歸納出23隻H指成份股全年成績表，發現在整體純利只微升4%下，65%H指淨負債比率按年計轉差，平均淨負債達69%，當中六隻股份比率飆逾100%，以電力、資源及基建股最重災，最重債者有中建材（3323）及華能國電（902），比率分別達456%及234%。更令人擔憂是，整體長債輕微上升7%，至約1.1萬億元的同時，短債則勁升31%，大幅推升短債比例七個百分點，至51%，整體債務則增近17%，至超過2萬億元。. x8 D' d' x) P
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■H股淨負債比率轉差，其中資源企業為重災之一。 ( B3 |* o1 |' v5.39.217.77:8898TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。6 b) [* `& _% O- j2 d
3 F5 A: F6 R* E& Q公仔箱論壇息口趨升 還款能力恐轉差 % r* j* E$ s! h2 f% K: y公仔箱論壇2 {! b% x C' w% U8 h
有「基金教父」之稱的交銀施羅德投資管理（香港）副董事長雷賢達擔憂，在利率市場化的前提下，內地息口勢持續攀升，國企還款能力或轉弱，若再遇上銷售不理想，財政壓力就更大，並有機會逐步浮現在盈利表現上。雷賢達又補充指，H股短債急升，或因實際經濟及銷售表現，與企業預期有差距，令到資金流轉不足，要以短債「過日子」，意味財政壓力已經開始浮面。# D4 ~6 p: C X2 Z2 g9 S
& M0 p Y% {; t0 b2 w產能過剩 陷入惡性循環 7 ~/ H: i( D/ @( |) }tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb公仔箱論壇. E' \6 ~) y6 {; V3 O
事實上，H股在短債急升的同時，23間H股總利息開支亦上升18%，至914億元，佔整體負債比例由去年的4.4%，微升至4.5%，反映息口已漸見上升勢頭；另外，有四間高負債H股的利息開支已大於純利，當中去年純利勁減近九成至7.77億元的兗煤（1171），一年利息支出已達17.7億元，較純利高出逾倍。 - t' W* Q. a' H# B# D q5.39.217.77:8898 # Z0 |8 G$ s; y( Q7 S* [- W% k; Y1 Htvb now,tvbnow,bttvb高負債股越來越重債已陷惡性循環，背後原因是過度投資導致產能過剩，如「負債王」中建材的重債問題拖累股價遠遜同業，過往一年股價下跌14.7%，海螺（914）卻升34.8%，在今年內地經濟下行和去槓桿的大環境下，負債重的國企股難以翻身，恐怕將繼續沉淪。 ! _5 V6 U' u9 m+ r, N/ D5.39.217.77:8898- v1 n' I7 S, _0 ?/ `$ N/ y- w- U2 k
國泰君安首席經濟學家林采宜指出，中央要求去槓桿，再加上內地即將出現更多信託、企業債違約的個案，預期今年下半年內地資金成本將會上升，過往在融資上受到照顧的國企，在三中全會的改革藍圖之下，日後在資金市場的優勢將逐步減少，尤其內地有縮減過剩產能的壓力，銀行將抽緊對建材、煤炭等過剩產能行業的融資，上述行業將高危。至於交銀國際首席策略師洪灝亦指，除融資成本趨升外，今年經濟下行，企業盈利增長放緩，對債重國企更為不利。5.39.217.77:8898$ |7 G+ `* I q$ _: h$ w! R
* d5 l9 j* K% C/ h, X5 Q5.39.217.77:8898雷賢達表示，H股高負債雖難言對市場帶來負面影響，但可以想像在未來一段不短的時間，市場仍會對內地經濟重拾動力存疑，令投資市場仍需要時間收復信心。 . _8 t. x! Z. ~5.39.217.77:8898 7 O$ \& i+ T6 K7 aTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 9 z: s7 x+ K) q0 P9 Ztvb now,tvbnow,bttvb 9 y, {% e& d/ E X" j, Htvb now,tvbnow,bttvb 1 d f) d; ^, a, I' B7 d: ztvb now,tvbnow,bttvb7 d9 k- C3 n" ~; l( \+ B. A 0 s- X+ G# ~. F% F6 K. `
0 l' o5 y) s9 z1 D, X: `% }' V公仔箱論壇: A: }8 o$ Y) s
打貪未奏效 應酬開支增17% TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。% v0 Z3 p2 f% ?: f& p
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■一直被中央「死盯」的中煤能源等資源類板塊企業的應酬開支有縮減趨勢。 8 O' {0 y/ B, e" `: p: x% O+ q公仔箱論壇 ! O' Y. }, ]" R+ | + H5 X! w# G; d$ Q6 b( Utvb now,tvbnow,bttvb【不跌反升】 $ O9 q) B0 Z& O2 ~- K5.39.217.77:8898 & I& y* K7 p( Y7 h" A2 s0 {# Q+ rTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。內地新管治班子去年上任，即強調反貪及節省公款開支，本報翻查H指成份股的A股上市年報，當中主動披露去年辦公、差旅、會議及交通費的企業有15間，即使當中不包括估計開支最大的三大油股及四大內銀股，惟已足以顯示一年下來打貪成效並不算顯著，去年合共相關開支達145億元（人民幣．下同），按年增加近17%，平均每名員工開支1.3萬元，意味每位國企員工平均每月可「豪飲豪食」近1,100元，2012年相關數字不足1,000元。 & t" M5 t' s, M' r8 o0 o' ?4 e8 P # T5 c. W2 y. d3 d打貪下差旅及交通等費用不跌反升，主要由於相關開支最大的金融類板塊如內險及證券業，去年繼續「大花筒」，當中平保（2318）計及辦公雜費的相關費用多達49.6億元，按年飆六成，平均每位員工豪花2.4萬元，增幅達五成；太保（2601）相關開支亦增約8.3%，平均每位員工花費4.5萬元；至於中信証券（6030）相關開支增近三成，至4.9億元。 % H* b$ o4 P5 p' j; X1 WTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 0 y- k+ ]+ e/ i' \. i: Y9 c' i公仔箱論壇 * r3 l/ r9 {, Y H5.39.217.77:8898 2 D2 ?: ~- y. u; W: G6 m, t5.39.217.77:8898資源類企業相關使費減 9 ^% V! A' v4 A* t9 N- u$ Qtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb + C* } w t) S- ?) s1 }' CTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。不過，一直被中央「死盯」的資源類板塊卻顯然乖乖就範，兗煤（1171）、中煤（1898）、江銅（358）及紫金（2899）相關支出跌幅介乎0.3%至25%，當中中煤平均每名員工使費勁縮超過800元，至3,190元；兗煤則大減627元，至1,570元。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。! n$ ]0 {+ `. F# u8 ~ h2 b
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