/ x$ j. J2 p# w3 P公仔箱論壇如果隻有希臘一國出現無序的主權違約且退出歐元區，情況還是可控的。希臘在歐元區GDP及公共債務中所佔的比重僅分別為2.2%和4%。然而，若是意大利出現無序的主權違約且退出歐元區，歐洲銀行業則將遭受重創。假如所有五個外圍國家都出現無序的主權違約、並且都退出歐元區——我認為出現這種情況的可能性不超過5%——那麼它拖垮的將不僅是歐洲銀行業系統，還有北大西洋金融體系，以及全球金融系統中其餘具有國際風險敞口的部分。接踵而至的金融危機將引發持續數年的全球性衰退，屆時GDP的下滑幅度可能超過10%，西方國家的失業率將觸及20%，甚至更高。新興市場也將未能幸免。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。* t. y% O& d$ g: C' F
; V: N4 U o! U& _; ^TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。而如果德國及其它具有雄厚財政實力和強勁競爭力的國家退出歐元區，後果則將更具破壞性。有一種情況也許會使這一幕成為可能，即試圖建立一個單邊的財政聯盟，無限量地發行歐元債券，或是在不需要以預防下次危機為考慮、從而放棄相應財政主權的前提下，由實力較強的國家向較弱國家轉移資金，抑或是歐洲央行要踏上“魏瑪之路”。我認為出現這種情況的可能性極低，可能性不到3%。若這些國家退出，德國和歐元區其它核心成員國（也許不包括法國）隨後將推出新的德國馬克。外圍國家的主權債務將違約。新的德國馬克將大幅升值。由於持有原有外圍國家和“軟核心”國家的風險敞口而出現虧損，這一新區域內的金融機構必然要獲得救助。餘下的歐元區國家在缺少維系紐帶的情況下，可能會分解成11個不同國家的貨幣。所有曾以歐元計價的合約和文書的法律意義及效力將全部重寫。除了專攻貨幣法的律師以外，所有人都將變得更加窮困。公仔箱論壇* n* V$ c2 M0 F, v3 G
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盡管歐元區的解體不會完全摧毀歐盟，也不會引發像過去那樣曾給歐洲大陸抹黑的沖突，但似乎仍有相當充分的理由繼續維持這個聯盟。 ! O) A1 L* C. D: x8 {, y公仔箱論壇5.39.217.77:8898 U( H) b# L9 g# U# }9 n5 W
7 s! @& G" J* {8 w$ ^! r0 X& W e3 h5.39.217.77:8898威廉姆•比特是花旗首席經濟學家作者: felicity2010 時間: 2011-12-15 08:11 AM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-12-15 08:15 AM 編輯 公仔箱論壇9 b" _3 P) [6 Z+ m
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。( N* C: a' A1 T9 v The ECB Fear Factor Philippe Legrain # P% S6 w7 |( J/ I5.39.217.77:8898 " P# v) B9 A, X公仔箱論壇[attach]1543516[/attach] 4 D) d& S7 S) {8 v公仔箱論壇tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb7 D$ X: E3 c: K* w2 F6 c
v; L) C/ d% F # A6 x; @: ^, dPanic is beginning to overwhelm the eurozone. Italy and Spain are caught in the maelstrom. Belgium is slipping into the danger zone. As Franceis dragged down, the widening gap between its bond yields and Germany’s is severely testing the political partnership that has driven six decades of European integration.公仔箱論壇$ E' J9 ^ P: z. F
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Even strong swimmers such as Finland and the Netherlands are straining against the undertow. Banks are struggling to stay afloat – their capital providing little buoyancy as funds drain away – while businesses that rely on credit are in trouble, too. All signs point to a eurozone recession. + w& S+ r! |1 _6 f8 U& VTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Left unchecked, this panic about sovereign solvency will prove self-fulfilling: just as a healthy bank can fail if it suffers a run, even the most creditworthy government is at risk if the market refuses to refinance its debt. One can scarcely bear imagining the consequences: cascading bank and sovereign defaults, a devastating depression, the collapse of the euro (and perhaps even that of the European Union), global contagion, and potentially tragic political turmoil. So why aren’t policymakers doing whatever it takes to avoid catastrophe?TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。0 S9 ^5 u7 E" ]* U# R. Z# y/ D
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Ever since Italian bond yields first spiked in early August, I have believed that only an open-ended commitment by the European Central Bank to keep solvent governments’ bond yields at sustainable rates could calm the panic and create the breathing space needed to implement confidence-boosting reforms. Everything that has happened since then has only confirmed this view.# g- r8 p6 [- o# _* O4 ^
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Now that the crisis has reached the “core” of the eurozone, the resources needed to backstop weaker sovereigns exceed the limited fiscal capacity of stronger ones. Financial wizardry cannot disguise that, while throwing a bigger lifeline risks dragging everyone down. Piling everyone on to the same life raft– through Eurobonds backed by joint and several guarantees – is not legally feasible for now, and would be politically toxic if attempted prematurely. Nor can a systemic crisis be resolved by individual governments’ actions – not least because the panic is outpacing politicians’ ability to respond. Only the ECB has the unlimited wherewithal to save Europe from the abyss now.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb$ V0 x% j( \: Z
The ECB has a strong rationale to act: to ensure the smooth transmission of monetary policy, to prevent a depression that would lead to deflation, and to avoid the breakup of the euro. Yet it has so far refused to do so, hiding behind a legal fig leaf. ' S. e- C1 @0 C- d. [( {: F & {. Y0 j, P1 V2 e% b6 W2 P& m1 }0 OGranted, Article 123 of the Lisbon Treaty prohibits the ECB from purchasing bonds directly from public bodies, but intervening in the secondary market is permitted. The ECB has long been doing so through its Securities Market Program. Where in the treaty does it say that extending the SMP is prohibited? Indeed, a credible open-ended commitment to contain interest-rate spreads would actually require fewer purchases than the ECB’s current limited and temporary program does.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb9 s+ s# H. M8 o1 }
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Unfortunately, many Germans, notably at the Bundesbank, loathe the idea of central-bank intervention, because it conjures up memories of 1923, when the Reichsbank printed money to fund government borrowing, the resulting hyperinflation destroyed middle-class savings, and a decade later Hitler came to power. Yet Germans ought to remember that it was in fact the financial panic provoked by the collapse of the Austrian bank Creditanstalt, the resulting slump, and misjudgment by the German political establishment that cleared the Nazis’ path. $ P) Y/ T6 `# q( C% b/ M公仔箱論壇* E7 q, m6 V. J
Far from precluding action, history justifies it. Besides, there is no reason to panic about inflation when monetary growth is low, bank credit is contracting, and people are hoarding money rather than spending it. Moreover,any ECB purchases could continue to be sterilized.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb& F$ P8 i3 S& }
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Another objection is that ECB intervention would ease the pressure on the new governments in Italy and Spain to reform. Yet, as it is, reformers have no time to establish their credentials,and if the eurozone collapses, the door will be open to populist extremists. So why doesn’t the ECB strike a bargain with solvent governments to keep rates down as long as they stick to their reform programs? ' s. L! N2 r4 b6 Y' i7 u _7 R公仔箱論壇Eurozone leaders could also set out a roadmap towards Eurobonds, subject to strict conditionality, and tied to a credible mechanism for ensuring fiscal prudence. This would provide an additional incentive for governments that wish to qualify to introduce the necessary reforms, while reassuring the ECB and markets that governments remain committed to making the euro work. ! `" i) N5 @5 D7 @) B0 g2 t4 w , A R4 s3 n7 ?9 FExceptional times demand exceptional measures – and I believe that the ECB will feel obliged to act if the eurozone is pushed to the brink. But the longer the ECB delays, the greater the hit to people’s jobs and savings, the deeper the enduring damage to investors' confidence in the eurozone financial system,and the bigger the risk of a catastrophic mishap. The time to act is now.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。! S/ o4 U0 t* S 2 ]# y: E5 E7 ?- Q8 b$ k/ w0 lTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 6 P- o- C. @. B- T. jPhilippe Legrain is an independent economic adviser to the European Commission.
