) O' m; w1 W. V* B- F自從九十年代初的英國被迫退出歐洲滙率機制( EMS)後,貨幣一體化已成為英國政壇的禁忌,保守黨固然畏之如蛇蠍,執政十三年的工黨同樣口惠實不至,提出多個幾乎難以符合的條件以逃避加入歐元區的問題。德法意等歐盟國家則義無反顧,十年前同時放棄本身貨幣,組成貨真價實的貨幣聯盟,自此以後,歐盟內部已變相形成內外兩個圈。德法意荷等歐元區國家成為新的歐盟核心,在經濟、貨幣、資金管理等方面的合作越來越強,越來越有默契,領導人之間的個人關係更密切。英國、瑞典、挪威等不加入歐元區的歐盟成員則好像成了次級會員、很多重大的發展、政策都跟她們不相干,她們也失去發言權及影響力。挪威、瑞典之類的北歐小國向來不追求甚麼影響力,只要保持跟歐元區國家的經濟、貿易聯繫已足夠。英國卻是另一回事,直到九十年代中她仍是歐盟內足以制衡德法核心的大國,仍可以團結部份對進一步一體化有保留的國家反對歐盟進一步擴權。但自她拒絕加入歐元區後,英國在歐盟事務的影響力江河日下,德法再有甚麼新動作、新搞作也不會跟英國商量。而在今次英國再opt-out後,她的影響力只會進一步縮減,即使再有甚麼意見也會被當作耳邊風、風凉話。試想想人家為了保住歐元集體勒緊褲頭,交出主權,英國卻逍遙自在,歐元區國家怎麼還會把英國政府的意見當一回事呢?公仔箱論壇4 _4 Z% H# [' g5 ] W
/ c" B: H6 e; x8 E' _5.39.217.77:8898現在，由於這個沖動之舉，他在這一天榮登英國各右翼媒體的頭條位置，但其代價卻是，我們所有人在今后一二十年裡都將抱憾不已。5.39.217.77:8898* Q5 e! `( O+ K A
8 n( U9 Z- l$ P& |英國如今將被排除在涉及歐洲關鍵經濟政策的所有決策過程之外，這些決策過程將在擴大后的歐元集團中進行。但是，實際情況比這還要糟糕。我們還讓自己置身於無法對涉及英國的其它決策施加影響的境地。英國被排除在外的那個集團，將在歐盟(EU)舉行峰會之前自行開會達成一致立場。屆時，我們就隻能在涉及單一市場的議題上面對既成事實。從實質上說，我們將相當於沒有石油的挪威——既要遵循歐洲的決定，又不能對這些決定施加影響。當然，在某些議題上我們還能行使否決權。可是，現在涉及單一市場的多數議題都通過特定多數表決制(qualified majority voting)決定。如果一個成員國再三動用否決權阻撓決定通過，另外26個成員國能忍耐它多久呢？ m+ p+ b) w9 n& R9 ^; ltvb now,tvbnow,bttvb公仔箱論壇9 Q) g/ {( I9 y! L5 C
我對這種機制在實踐中的運作有過體驗。我曾於20世紀80年代在歐洲安全與合作會議(Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe)中擔任西方的談判代表之一。我們當時曾舉行歐洲經濟共同體分組會議，確定我們的立場。當時歐洲經濟共同體的12個成員國會持一致立場參與北約(NATO)的會議。美國、加拿大和土耳其大喊大叫、威脅恐嚇，卻不能動搖我們的一致立場。, Z( G& y. G& ~' A. n
* N8 z0 U- {$ x公仔箱論壇英國歷屆政府（無論是保守黨政府還是工黨政府）都反對“雙速歐洲”，這是有原因的：我們不希望在自己身處的大洲被排除在權力之外。滑鐵盧戰役后的200年裡，英國為了在歐洲保有領導地位，付出了極大的努力。背離歐洲，就是背叛這段歷史。這件事似乎是，為了滿足某種短期利益（安撫80多名對歐洲持懷疑態度、威脅倒戈的保守黨后座議員），而犧牲了英國人民的長期利益。這些后座議員贏了——他們自己都沒料到會以這種方式勝出。他們希望舉行的公投現在已無必要，因為我們已經放棄了全面參與歐洲。公仔箱論壇0 |' z: _$ M1 j/ @% F
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這個災難性的決定有著極其嚴重的后果，因為我們現在連一個可以依靠的“特殊關系”都沒有了。像丘吉爾(Churchill)和羅斯福(FDR)、撒切爾夫人(Thatcher)和裡根(Reagan)、布萊爾和克林頓(Clinton)時代那樣的強有力的英美關系，如今已不復存在。英國傳統外交政策的兩根支柱，即英歐關系和英美關系，都被我們拋棄了。我不知道離開其中任何一根支柱，英國政府該怎樣讓英國立足於世界。英國政府也不知道。 ( _0 V4 g. O+ X- u% ~( i- A公仔箱論壇7 D% x3 W2 e) d" z: o
5.39.217.77:88986 y" W+ ]/ x" @8 ?7 P( E) G 喬納森•鮑威爾曾任英國外交官和前英國首相托尼•布萊爾的辦公室主任作者: felicity2010 時間: 2011-12-13 08:18 AM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-12-13 08:24 AM 編輯 0 D8 c: T& V. U9 q, [2 P5.39.217.77:8898tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb$ b9 ~ Q& t$ m9 I The British “Non” Harold James5.39.217.77:8898) y2 N& ] ~0 D- O# b! L
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At the just-concluded European Union summit, British Prime Minister David Cameron vented decades of accumulated resentment stemming from his country’s relationship with Europe. Europeans were appalled at how the last-minute injection of finicky points about bank regulation could stymie what was supposed to be a breakthrough agreement on the regulation of EU countries’ budgets. Cameron’s supporters in Britain cheered and portrayed him as a new Winston Churchill, standing up to the threat of a vicious continental tyrant. U9 s5 |" Y/ v Q7 C& P公仔箱論壇9 P$ ~# ^6 O, E
The United Kingdom’s view of Europe has always been both emotional and ambiguous. A Conservative government wanted to join the European Economic Community in the early 1960’s, but was rejected by French President Charles de Gaulle. The General mocked the British ambition with a rendition of Edith Piaf’s song about an English aristocrat left out on the street, “Ne pleurez pas, Milord.” In the end, Britain came in from the cold, but British leaders always felt that they were not quite welcome in the European fold. 9 z4 b" M v. h( x* ~TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 + r. i2 c2 i# ltvb now,tvbnow,bttvbAt two critical moments in the past, a British “no” had a decisive impact on European monetary developments. In 1978, German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt and French President Valéry Giscard d’Estaing proposed an exchange-rate arrangement – the European Monetary System (EMS) – to restore stable exchange rates in Europe. Initially, the Germans and the French negotiated trilaterally, with the UK, in meetings that were slow, cumbersome, and unproductive.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。* Q5 I. D7 L' [. ? v7 Y
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In fact, the talks were sabotaged by British Prime Minister James Callaghan, who started conferring with US President Jimmy Carter about the challenge that the European plan posed to the United States, and how the Anglo-Saxons could respond to the continental threat. As he put it, according to the transcript of one of the phone calls, “with the strength of the German economy, it could be extremely serious, and I don’t know, Jimmy, how to obviate it.” 7 v& P+ \+ v7 z6 T4 ~) ]6 ? 5 p9 ^" H3 J2 }7 v2 S U0 ]9 `TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Callaghan and Carter were right to worry, but they should have worried about themselves rather than the Europeans. At the time, Britain and the US had much greater problems – more radically unstable government finances and feebler economic growth – which ensured the ineffectiveness of their efforts to impede the European negotiations. Once Britain dropped out of the talks, a bilateral Franco-German deal was easily arranged. The EMS became a device for improving French policy and opening up the French economy. ( @/ u z1 l" H2 Y7 W; V+ _2 ]" ttvb now,tvbnow,bttvb , C, [- \% h7 U7 X) Htvb now,tvbnow,bttvbThe French position became a model for a new vision of how central banks could operate politically to enhance economic stability. Within a few years, France faced a major challenge when François Mitterrand’s experiment in radical socialist economics collapsed in 1983. When Jacques Delors, Mitterrand’s finance minister and the architect of his U-turn from nationalization and other socialist policies,later became EU Commission President, he was one of the most effective advocates of European monetary union.$ ]7 j& G( A# M; X, q+ ^
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The idea underlying the French strategy of tying the currency to German strength, the franc fort, was that it would limit or constrain domestic policy.Mitterrand had to wrestle with a fractious range of coalition partners. On the left, there were Communists, whom he wanted to marginalize politically, as well as Jacobin socialists who wanted a national path of economic development. Some of the most important industrial leaders also pleaded – in secret “night visits” to the presidential palace – for a national path involving devaluation and a weak currency.公仔箱論壇8 o1 \9 G; t" L4 p0 Q+ y( H. P+ w2 `
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The complex European way of constraining domestic opposition never appealed to British politicians. In the early 1990’s, Prime Minister John Major negotiated an opt-out from the Maastricht Treaty’s provisions on monetary union, but was proud that the pound was a stable and – as he saw it – central part of the EMS. In September 1992, a speculative attack on the pound led to Britain’s departure. / Y7 C+ M% i- Y: {0 V5.39.217.77:8898公仔箱論壇/ s2 W4 o% B) X0 I
The subsequent nine months saw a spectacular collapse of the European momentary order, as speculators worked over one country after another. Spain, Portugal, and the Scandinavian countries followed Italy and the UK out of the EMS, before France itself came under attack – the last of the falling dominos.- e8 \$ b# r% ]) T& B
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The crises that wracked Europe from September1992 to July 1993 laid the foundation for the final drive to the establishment of European monetary union. Britain was left on the sidelines, and fiscal discipline was to be imposed externally. The major problem, of course, was that in some cases, discipline was not enforced.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。% d9 r; p4 n8 I3 z1 Q
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As in 1978 and 1992, British obstructionism today may be a blessing in disguise for the rest of Europe. In particular,it opens the way to a Europe of variable geometry, in which only those countries willing to accept stability criteria will go forward with deeper integration. Institutionally, this may be more complex than an EU-wide treaty amendment, but the result can be tailored and crafted more appropriately to the real situations of rather diverse countries.5.39.217.77:88980 ?7 [4 p. `, ?1 ?
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By contrast, for Britain, the legacy of its heroic defiance of Europe has been much bleaker. In both 1978 and 1992, the immediate aftermath was a substantial period of economic and political turmoil. Monetary shocks led to geopolitical irrelevance. ]* d* W5 n0 j! I0 ^" r 3 e$ Z$ t {! L9 jToday, as in 1978, the UK and the US are in a parlous fiscal state, and schadenfreude about European problems is no substitute for embarking on a strenuous path of reform. 9 u( F" e% i: @4 b- D: |2 j0 V _ 2 G: K8 L! ~) o5 j2 y: vCameron, in particular, should not allow comparisons to Churchill go to his head. No one would include James Callaghan and John Major in the ranks of great British leaders. Cameron, too, could one day be remembered as a barely relevant and largely discredited figure.5.39.217.77:8898/ p9 f# j C# u# B# s8 n) O A2 L
/ m; `( I1 k# m8 R9 U/ B2 m" b公仔箱論壇% q- M# M2 Z/ W$ l* t6 q Harold James is Professor of History and International Affairs at Princeton University and Professor of History at the European University Institute, Florence.He is the author of The Creation and Destruction of Value: The Globalization Cycle.作者: aa00 時間: 2011-12-13 09:06 AM
英國自私自利 歐債危機難解 . a9 A3 y/ B9 L e tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb" I7 N( F7 u8 ^1 ]* C9 Q6 O
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被視為歐盟解除歐債危機最後機會之歐盟領袖峰會，非但未見減少市場疑慮，而且橫生枝節，英國首相卡梅倫懶理一眾歐元區和非歐元區歐盟成員的鄙視，以維護英國利益為由，反對修改歐盟條約，歐盟只能透過另行簽訂新條約加強財政紀律，德法兩國藉歐盟峰會達成一致協議淡化標普降級警告的如意算盤無法打響。 - c! d y$ I" B3 g& d" |' O& J8 `tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb6 W% p0 i& _/ ~3 y$ u$ ?
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。2 P g; M8 _7 }- w" C8 H
雖然卡梅倫在歐盟峰會上犯眾憎，但他回到英國後，料保守黨內疑歐派議員連連送上掌聲，盛讚其堅拒讓步的老虎狗精神。公仔箱論壇2 G3 |( `( U* L+ m0 ^; I
6 U4 T" U0 Y/ e' e. n# U2 U公仔箱論壇 0 d$ }9 ?" z1 b事實上，歐盟將加強財政紀律寫進歐盟條約，未見對倫敦國際金融樞紐地位造成即時損害，卡梅倫要求歐盟進一步保障英國金融業界的利益，以換取英國支持修改歐盟條約，予人趁火打劫之感。 4 }, d6 K- y0 D1 D( L1 Z5.39.217.77:8898) ^7 S5 d. ?; w$ T
9 C! d( H0 ~) b S4 M! D/ [2 s" J卡梅倫乘人之危換來剎那光輝，英國隨時得不償失。你做初一我做十五，在歐盟整體決策上，英國今後或進一步被其他成員國排擠，甚至出現英國愈是想維護本國金融服務業、愈被其他歐盟成員反對和阻撓的情況，也就是說，卡梅倫在不適當的時候提出不適當的要求，只會弄巧反拙。 4 Z) f0 e* |2 }+ d公仔箱論壇/ K a3 {6 {0 Z( o
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自私自利的英國在歐盟內愈加孤立，對德法來說，這不是意味着她們毋須再跟英國客氣、可毫無保留在重大議題上跟英國唱反調、自行其是？德國總理默克爾也可能會阿Q地安慰自己，正因有卡梅倫阻頭阻勢，從直接修改歐盟條約，換為更便捷的另簽新約模式，歐債能及早止血，有助重獲市場信心。問題是，英國與德法各行其是，已與峰會營造團結的目標背道而馳，德法暗示自己才是贏家的言論，均是自欺欺人。5.39.217.77:88983 l1 w, k+ ~7 {9 k5 L9 Q% b
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。+ x4 n+ d R6 _( e" u2 x( B% H
