本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-12-6 08:40 AM 編輯 9 z- n. l8 U5 a: f1 Q4 D. XTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。5.39.217.77:88982 o- h T G2 m+ l# \1 M0 k* v& v 一旦歐元區解體 托尼•巴伯5.39.217.77:8898- V; M& v$ s- c' }6 A$ _2 z
# B! j8 h. V) E公仔箱論壇 * t2 ]- a' K! C& |# E6 L安德裡亞斯•施密茨(Andreas Schmitz)的辦公室坐落在德國杜爾塞多夫市的國王大道(Königsallee)上，這條運河畔的林蔭大道是一條高檔購物街，也是德國最時髦的辦公地點之一。從這個位置，施密茨可以直觀地監測歐洲經濟進步（或沒有進步）。; L/ P+ f1 T+ _$ m3 J( @; h
/ _; |" C6 i: B2 r f施密茨不僅執掌著英國金融集團匯豐(HSBC)的德國子公司HSBC Trinkaus（為萊茵-魯爾工業腹地乃至其他地區提供財富管理服務），作為德國主要的銀行業協會——德國銀行聯邦協會(BdB)的主席，他也常常造訪德國商業之都、歐洲央行(ECB)總部所在地法蘭克福。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb: i2 o4 `& Y5 F# I1 ~1 r
7 f# E# ]* ~3 v* F/ b: ?3 b4 i對於歐元區南部一些國家的政府來說，債券市場要麼已經完全關上大門，要麼不斷提高新發債券需要支付的利率﹔因此，默克爾和薩科齊打破禁忌之舉，令人專注於歐元面臨的風險。 . w, g) X# l1 @! G* }7 U公仔箱論壇! z+ P2 X# K4 S. o7 N, a
“就我們所知，隻有很少一部分企業在針對歐元區解體的情形制訂應急計劃。盡管如此，我們已經對葡萄牙不再使用歐元的后果做了一些初步的粗略分析。”葡萄牙最大的出口商之一大眾歐洲汽車公司(Volkswagen Autoeuropa)的財務總監於爾根•迪特爾•霍夫曼(Jürgen Dieter Hoffmann)說，“結論是對我們公司來說，總體影響不至於那麼消極，因為我們主要是一家出口商，且隸屬於一家全球集團。” 5 v! m8 C: v0 P. Otvb now,tvbnow,bttvbtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb- J# Y \2 k2 Q
並不是所有人都這麼直截了當。西班牙營建集團(FCC)首席執行官巴爾多梅羅•法爾科內斯(Baldomero Falcones)表示，該集團已經制定了一個“B計劃”，以應對可能席卷南歐國家的金融風暴。但他補充道：“這個B計劃並沒有考慮歐元區解體的可能性。我認為這個概率非常低，因為它對整個歐洲造成的代價將是不堪設想的。” - m% [8 y! v+ h, I( J J! h! a公仔箱論壇0 R v/ a* G" b% q% K: s9 P& T
意大利最有名望的一些商界人士也發表了類似的模棱兩可的言論：是的，我們在為一些極其嚴重的金融和經濟震蕩做准備，但我們沒有為歐元區解體的可能性做准備。大型工業控股企業CIR的首席執行官魯道夫•德貝內德蒂(Rodolfo De Benedetti)表示：“本集團一直在研究降低意外事件潛在風險的各種方法，准備應對任何情況，包括可能性最低的情況。然而，我有信心認為，歐洲領導人能夠防止歐元區解體。” 4 I) W! p: M( f" F8 A2 }8 XTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。/ h4 A8 S. O. Z9 y- |0 j
歐洲領先的家電公司之一意大利意黛喜(Indesit)的首席執行官馬爾科•米拉尼(Marco Milani)表示，意黛喜的關注焦點是那些能夠保証公司度過難關的投資。 0 m* U% e; W1 S' [tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb 0 F7 b) z1 G% Z- s* Q/ |+ o* f; x公仔箱論壇面對歐元區解體這個沒有人希望看到的噩夢景象，歐洲企業准備得如何？關於這一點，公開的研究非常少。不過，倫敦企業軟件供應商IT2 Treasury Solutions上月對75家企業的財務負責人做了一項匿名調查，這些企業位於英國、荷蘭、芬蘭、瑞士、挪威、瑞典、加拿大和阿聯酋。調查結果顯示，認為歐元區將在未來1年內解體的受訪者比例剛過53%。更能說明問題的是，78.5%的受訪者認為，隻要提前3個月獲知歐元區將要解體，自己所在的企業在財務和運營方面將能夠應付。 0 S1 A! ~- I: m V5 g公仔箱論壇公仔箱論壇9 o1 h) r+ G5 r2 H& y. `
企業的財務負責人是抗擊危機的一線人員，他們負責保護企業資產、管理企業的匯率、利率及其它風險敞口。IT2的首席執行官凱文•格蘭特(Kevin Grant)表示，許多企業的財務負責人不僅意識到了歐元區解體的危險，還已經採取了防御性措施。0 `5 M7 @4 b* ^, a
( C. ~; L, y7 H6 d3 etvb now,tvbnow,bttvb“金融危機之后，許多企業已採取措施，管理源自商業義務的間接風險敞口和源自脆弱金融機構的風險敞口。”格蘭特說，“把雞蛋都放在一個籃子裡的大企業似乎不是太多……大多數跨國企業的財務負責人認為，自己有能力應付某個成員國退出歐元區帶來的系統性沖擊波。”TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。1 A' ]* x$ D9 G. Z$ b' d
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-12-8 12:53 AM 編輯 1 x+ \$ V: K+ A2 y0 H# a- g' Z; v6 G
2 d# y" ?9 U2 D + J# o, L/ I6 ]( w7 M 怎樣拯救歐元？ Joseph E. Stiglitz5.39.217.77:8898% Q0 T+ \) ? y Y" f& S0 ?- `7 M
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: ^# W9 f. j; d- b$ n1 F有時候事情看上去並不會變得很糟，但實際上卻並非如此。即就是歐元區一些看似“負責”的成員國也將面臨更高的利率。而大西洋兩岸的歐美經濟學家們現在討論的已經不是歐元能否生存下來的問題，而是如何確保歐元體系的崩潰只帶來最小的動蕩。公仔箱論壇- d/ V4 `$ q$ T m8 P; b
: h6 u& ], V3 F) g% Y/ D: I ^TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。儘管歐洲各國領導致力於挽救歐元，但在維繫歐元運作的必要措施方面，各國領導對此的認識缺陷卻逐漸暴露出來。歐元體系建立伊始，主流觀點認為維繫歐元體系的運作只需在財政方面進行約束，即，各成員國的財政赤字或公共債務應與各國國內生產總值相適應。經濟危機前，愛爾蘭和西班牙仍有預算結餘，並保持較低的債務值。然而，很快一切都化為烏有，兩國都陷入財政赤字，債台高築。所以，當今歐洲各國領導都指出控制各成員國的經常項目赤字才是當務之急。 ) u( l$ C5 W7 S# @# s2 ]tvb now,tvbnow,bttvbTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。% ^) s, b" C% L. J+ }6 R) u
如果真是這樣，那麼隨著經濟危機的蔓延，美國這個常年保持經常項目赤字的國家卻成了全球投資者的避風港，就顯得不合常理了。而歐盟將如何分辨政府為創造有利投資環境以及增加外國直接投資而造成的“良性”經常性項目赤字和“不良”經常性項目赤字呢？要想避免“不良”經常性項目赤字，那麼對於私營部門的幹預則應該遠遠大於歐元區建立時頗受歡迎的新自由主義以及單一市場原則所倡導的程度。& }( m! z3 {- E+ r1 u+ }, a3 y J# e
% o2 A* {: @9 W% F$ NTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。以西班牙為例，私營部門的資金主要來自私有銀行。而受這種非理性繁榮的影響，政府是否應被迫削減公共投資呢？而這是否又意味著政府必須決定這其中哪一種資金流是不良的（如，投資房產的資金），從而這種投資是否應繳納稅款或者被限制呢？我個人覺得這樣的政策會行之有效。但是對於歐盟自由市場的倡導者而言，這些政策只會招來極大的不滿。公仔箱論壇, k. j+ o5 U, H* g# p& N8 O1 Y* w
4 ]. F4 s0 q% ]. w8 _% m公仔箱論壇為了尋求一個明確簡單的答案。人們的注意力再一次集中到每次金融危機過後的討論之上。每一次金融危機結束，總有相應的解釋出現。而這些解釋總是在下一次金融危機到來時被推翻或者至少證明其不全面。二十世紀八十年代的拉美經濟危機是由於過度貸款造成的。而這個解釋卻不適用於1994年的墨西哥經濟危機，因為這一次危機的原因是由於儲蓄不足。 5 ]7 j" _& ? Z( ~6 R7 A h$ v @& U5.39.217.77:8898 / _; V, R. }$ }$ M) ^: ^公仔箱論壇而緊接著到了東亞經濟危機。東亞擁很高的儲蓄率，但這一次問題出在“管理方式”之上。在享有世界上最透明管理方式的斯堪的納維亞國家幾年前遭受金融危機時，這個解釋則又成了無稽之談。公仔箱論壇( N/ b- x: `) q0 Y9 C( C
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但值得注意的是，這些金融危機，包括2008年的金融危機，都有一個共通的線索，即，金融行業表現欠佳，未能准確評估信用度，在危機出現時，未能及時處理。 8 j+ b0 N& S9 H% V3 _! _ ) X+ g. V# }4 E) D/ g. v( z: x$ W無論有沒有歐元，這些問題都會出現。但是對於政府來說，歐元的出現使得這些問題變得更加棘手。而現在的問題不僅只是：歐元的崩潰將使得各國喪失兩大調節方式（利率以及彙率），以及歐洲央行的權限主要集中於控制通貨膨脹；而且，現在各國政府還面臨失業，增長速度慢，以及金融市場不穩定的挑戰。失去了共同財政管理體系的統一市場只會為稅收競爭敞開大門。各國會通過降低稅收的方式來吸引投資並增加可以在歐盟區自由交易產品的產出。8 |% I0 d1 | [# q4 r: Q' P/ [
( s- U1 p: ?5 Q9 C5 B0 Xtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb再者，自由勞動流動意味著個人可以選擇是否為自己的父母輩還債——愛爾蘭的年青人只需要離開自己的國家就不用在為政府愚蠢的銀行擔保買單。當然，移民可以使勞動力按照收益重新分配，本身當然無可厚非。但是，這種方式的移民實際是在削弱生產力。2 f- \) ^$ X* w8 G/ ^! {- A5 g
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當然，移民正是美國調節機制的一部分。它使得美國能夠以使用單一貨幣的統一市場的形式來運作。更為重要的是：聯邦政府通過分配更多的額外稅收來緩解各州面臨的問題（如高失業率）時所扮演的角色，即所謂的“轉移聯盟”，讓很多德國人深惡痛絕。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。" d, d) p" A* X6 t/ h; j$ g
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而美國同樣也願意在那些失去競爭力的州採取減少人口的方式來解決問題（一些人指出美國企業可以通過這種方法來從這些競爭力低的州購買議員的席位）。但是生產力相對落後的歐洲願意通過減少人口來解決問題嗎？或者，歐洲願意忍痛採取“內部”貶值的方式——這種方式在過去在黃金標准體系下曾經慘遭失敗，而在如今在歐元體系也下日趨崩潰？tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb0 g) x7 q! x% ~
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即便一些歐洲北部國家所宣稱的通過採取一些有效的管理方法可以使歐元重獲生機方法是正確的。（我個人認為是錯誤的）他們也不過是在上演一齣自欺欺人的道德劇罷了。當然，採取奢侈財務政策的南部同盟，或者將自由市場等同為沒有限制，對於後果毫無顧忌的西班牙和愛爾蘭本身責無旁貸。但指責並不能解決今天面臨的問題：歐盟的巨額債務，無論是私有還是公有行業造成的，必須從起自身出發著手解決。公仔箱論壇8 k- I& V' `+ u1 @8 ^+ G9 O
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往昔欠下的巨額債務並不能通過減少當下公共部門的預算來減少。這樣做只會適得其反，使經濟更為衰退。歐洲的領導人明白這一點。他們知道歐洲需要經濟增長。但是與其去解決問題，尋求經濟增長的方式，還不如喋喋不休地去指責前幾任政府的失職。對於說教者而言這是個讓人滿意的行為，但是這並不會解決歐洲的問題，當然也拯救不了歐元。 $ J' ]4 C; P/ a% m' ^: f公仔箱論壇 # u5 f5 s b7 V2 N7 \5 i- v公仔箱論壇 ( O% S- K2 C" G/ T! I5.39.217.77:8898What Can Save the Euro? Joseph E.Stiglitz - S8 T7 }! A4 h8 b8 J 3 z% v0 j9 y/ D# P& q2 v+ }tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb- u) s( v3 T/ a/ y# _
Just when it seemed that things couldn’t get worse,it appears that they have. Even some of the ostensibly “responsible” members of the eurozone are facing higher interest rates. Economists on both sides of the Atlantic are now discussing not just whether the euro will survive, but how to ensure that its demise causes the least turmoil possible. # H9 \' p7 g; O6 k5.39.217.77:8898 9 G" I0 T6 Z; [4 `$ \$ l, ^It is increasingly evident that Europe’s political leaders, for all their commitment to the euro’s survival, do not have a good grasp of what is required to make the single currency work. The prevailing view when the euro was established was that all that was required was fiscal discipline– no country’s fiscal deficit or public debt, relative to GDP, should be too large. But Ireland and Spain had budget surpluses and low debt before the crisis, which quickly turned into large deficits and high debt. So now European leaders say that it is the current-account deficits of the eurozone’s member countries that must be kept in check.5.39.217.77:8898% K. M4 m! u# y1 h- [3 M
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In that case, it seems curious that, as the crisis continues, the safe haven for global investors is the United States, which has had an enormous current-account deficit for years. So, how will the European Union distinguish between “good” current-account deficits – a government creates a favorable business climate, generating inflows of foreign direct investment – and “bad”current-account deficits? Preventing bad current-account deficits would require far greater intervention in the private sector than the neoliberal and single-market doctrines that were fashionable at the euro’s founding would imply.公仔箱論壇; ], {( Y$ P$ Z2 J/ F
0 v4 C% v, u+ A' S: u7 j% ?4 v3 T5.39.217.77:8898In Spain,for example, money flowed into the private sector from private banks. Should such irrational exuberance force the government, willy-nilly, to curtail public investment? Does this mean that government must decide which capital flows –say into real-estate investment, for example – are bad, and so must be taxed or otherwise curbed? To me, this makes sense, but such policies should be anathema to the EU’s free-market advocates.5.39.217.77:88981 o$ B- ^& P* }+ B
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The quest for a clear, simple answer recalls the discussions that have followed financial crises around the world. After each crisis, an explanation emerges, which the next crisis shows to be wrong, or at least inadequate. The 1980’s Latin American crisis was caused by excessive borrowing; but that could not explain Mexico’s1994 crisis, so it was attributed to under-saving." M4 v( e1 {" P/ P& I3 r1 A
) d3 B. r! L, r: q9 s7 T公仔箱論壇Then came East Asia,which had high savings rates, so the new explanation was “governance.”But this, too, made little sense, given that the Scandinavian countries – which have the most transparent governance in the world – had suffered a crisis a few years earlier.7 W8 [5 L( s2 l
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There is, interestingly, a common thread running through all of these cases, as well as the 2008 crisis: financial sectors behaved badly and failed to assess creditworthiness and manage risk as they were supposed to do. ( Q" h0 i" T. Q* Q& a : F1 e3 O& j: wTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。These problems will occur with or without the euro.But the euro has made it more difficult for governments to respond. And the problem is not just that the euro took away two key tools for adjustment – the interest rate and the exchange rate – and put nothing in their place, or that the European Central Bank’s mandate is to focus on inflation, whereas today’s challenges are unemployment, growth, and financial stability. Without a common fiscal authority, the single market opened the way to tax competition – a race to the bottom to attract investment and boost output that could be freely sold throughout the EU.5.39.217.77:8898$ [9 }$ K6 G4 _9 L6 b. c3 C
# `1 s3 M9 c/ E: Ytvb now,tvbnow,bttvbMoreover, free labor mobility means that individuals can choose whether to pay their parents’ debts: young Irish can simply escape repaying the foolish bank-bailout obligations assumed by their government by leaving the country. Of course, migration is supposed to be good,as it reallocates labor to where its return is highest. But this kind of migration actually undermines productivity., ]) E( c8 y' e) e/ U
. A/ q0 C7 s6 V2 O6 P; d公仔箱論壇Migration is, of course, part of the adjustment mechanism that makes America work as a single market with a single currency. Even more important is the federal government’s role in helping states that face, say, high unemployment,by allocating additional tax revenue to them – the so-called “transfer union”so loathed by many Germans.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb3 ]0 _4 U2 F* V) V+ p7 c) d h
/ K& w6 a! K% l5 k8 w4 d, qBut the US is also willing to accept the depopulation of entire states that cannot compete. (Some point out that this means that America’s corporations can buy senators from such states at a lower price.) But are European countries with lagging productivity willing to accept depopulation?Alternatively, are they willing to face the pain of “internal” devaluation, a process that failed under the gold standard and is failing under the euro? * R8 z8 G+ @8 Z5.39.217.77:8898tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb9 Y+ [ {/ {: f( R3 n2 v( w/ ^
Even if those from Europe’s northern countries are right in claiming that the euro would work if effective discipline could be imposed on others (I think they are wrong), they are deluding themselves with amorality play. It is fine to blame their southern compatriots for fiscal profligacy,or, in the case of Spain and Ireland,for letting free markets have free reign, without seeing where that would lead.But that doesn’t address today’s problem: huge debts, whether a result of private or public miscalculations, must be managed within the euro framework.公仔箱論壇+ E$ d# U7 O P4 _6 P3 G
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Public-sector cutbacks today do not solve the problem of yesterday’s profligacy; they simply push economies into deeper recessions. Europe’s leaders know this. They know that growth is needed. But, rather than deal with today’s problems and find a formula for growth, they prefer to deliver homilies about what some previous government should have done. This may be satisfying for the sermonizer, but it won’t solve Europe’s problems – and it won’t save the euro. , G9 P& {5 a. v0 L
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: P% c3 C# e- \# C, Q E6 k Joseph E. Stiglitz is University Professor at Columbia University, a Nobel laureate in economics, and the author of Freefall:Free Markets and the Sinking of the Global Economy.公仔箱論壇1 k5 G% o8 d/ S; j 作者: felicity2010 時間: 2011-12-6 08:46 AM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-12-6 08:51 AM 編輯 公仔箱論壇 x2 @5 u e" K# c. u
& G! n$ `: Q2 c/ ?8 G" cThe Poetry of the Euro Harold JamesTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。+ I( E# a9 A) G# r( N
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。! A( `" t y! |/ s6 R
5 e/ }# v, V- ]9 Ftvb now,tvbnow,bttvbThe purpose of creating a common currency has been largely and surprisingly forgotten in crisis-torn Europe.Instead, there seem to be more pressing concerns: gloomy speculation about the eurozone’s impending collapse and desperate attempts to find institutional fixes to its extensive governance problems. 1 ^1 g$ X& y2 n) @1 |! M , \6 I7 c. \$ GTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。But the euro was not just the outcome of an idiosyncratic quest to reduce the wear on pockets stuffed with odd national coins, or to facilitate intra-European trade. The bold European experiment reflected a new attitude about what money should do, as well as how it should be managed. In opting for a “pure” form of money, created by a central bank independent of national authority, Europeans self-consciously flew in the face of what had become the dominant monetary tradition. ! f: I' Z5 Y" `# aTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb/ N- p ^7 K+ G
In the twentieth century, the creation of money –paper money – was usually thought to be the domain of the state. Money could be issued because governments had the power to define the unit of account in which taxes should be paid. This tradition went back well before paper, or fiat,currencies. For many centuries, even while metallic money circulated, the task of defining units of account – livres tournois, marks, gulden, florins, or dollars – remained a task of the state (or of those with political power)." ]0 y2 `2 w- |1 H' O8 r M
2 @, i4 ~* ?3 B# h4 W {, e公仔箱論壇Abuse of this role, with governments addressing excessive debt by inflating it away, was deeply destructive of political order in the first half of the twentieth century. After World War II, the liberal politicians most committed to European federalism saw this point clearly. The economist, central-bank governor, finance minister, and president of the Italian Republic, Luigi Einaudi, pleaded the case in the immediate aftermath of the war: “If the European federation takes away from the individual states the power of running public works through the printing press, and limits them to expenses that are financed solely by taxes and voluntary loans, it will by that act alone have accomplished a great work.”, `5 \ E5 i7 b6 W
' v9 h5 O3 r3 N9 A RTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。But monetary abuse is no less dangerous in political systems with multi-layered authority, and in the past often led to the breakup of federal states. That is because inflation is not a benign cure for economic ills, in which beneficent and stimulatory effects are spread equally over the entire region under the inflationary monetary authority. Making inflation depends on the central bank’s decision to monetize specific debt instruments. # v8 T; T- _" B1 h$ {8 B3 Rtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。4 m0 s: w' R8 F' n4 Z0 X
After all, the monetary authority never decides simply to convert every obligation into money. Instead, it decides that some industries, banks, or political authorities need to be sustained for the general good. Those industries, banks, and political authorities that are not so privileged are inevitably resentful, and view the central bank’s actions as an abuse of power. In federal systems, in particular, those businesses and political authorities far removed from the center are most likely to be excluded from the monetary stimulus and hence are inclined to be resentful. % g0 h* s* O4 l$ ] Z# Z- a( c& wtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb5.39.217.77:8898- j( [8 P9 z9 O, s& W
Hyperinflation in Germany in the 1920’s fanned separatism in Bavaria,the Rhineland,and Saxony, because these remote areas thought that Germany’s central bank and central government in Berlin were discriminating against them. The separatists were politically radical – on the left in Saxony,and on the far right in Bavaria and the Rhineland.' N0 v, F8 Z* o) H* I' P, |4 C- s
7 U7 g" ~5 @6 R* ~2 Y$ p. bTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。There are also more recent cases of the same effect. In late-1980’s Yugoslavia, as the socialist regime disintegrated, the monetary authorities in Belgrade were inevitably closest to Serbian politicians such as Slobodan Milošević and to Serbian business interests. As a result, the Croats and Slovenes wanted out of the federation. In the Soviet Union,inflation appeared as an instrument of Moscow bureaucrats, and there, too, more remote areas sought to break away. , ]# ?. h$ K" q& R \" l5.39.217.77:8898tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb5 @( A( c. \2 S. X+ L" `
The makers of modern Europe saw that unstable and politically abused money would be a European nightmare,and lead to destructive national animosities and antagonisms. They were supported by the twentieth century’s two most influential economists, Friedrich von Hayek and John Maynard Keynes. # d" g8 E/ M$ |7 |公仔箱論壇 # _" D' T- M/ O% v0 X公仔箱論壇Hayek was the most consistent critic of state-produced money. His proposal, competitive currencies produced by “free banking” in which numerous private authorities would issue their own money, was more radical than the solution adopted by Europeans in the 1990’s. But the Hayekian element of a money-issuing authority that was extensively protected against political pressures, and consequently against political opprobrium, was a key part of the European Union’s Maastricht Treaty. Keynes, too, in planning for the postwar order, proposed a synthetic global currency that would guarantee stability and prevent deflation. , W0 K& U7 _2 Z* V8 b' t公仔箱論壇 6 Y1 e' X; o% i公仔箱論壇The vision of central-bank independence as a necessary part of the constitution of a sound and stable political order was not simply a European construct in the 1990’s. It was also reflected in legislative changes affecting other central banks, and in central bankers’ growing prestige." D, n( O# [% M* U! |
9 _% r' j* I) \* L3 RThat view is now seriously challenged. In the aftermath of the worst financial crisis since WWII, central banks are once again being called on to monetize securities issued by some debtors, but not others.That task of selecting between debtors is highly political, and poisons the idea of monetary stability. 9 d$ q# i( Y$ V- }1 j+ [TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 7 h9 e/ ?! \% f7 @* \% I$ ttvb now,tvbnow,bttvbJean-Claude Trichet, until recently the president of the European Central Bank, liked to claim that money was like poetry, before adding that both give a sense of stability. That unusual but accurate formulation is reminiscent of General August Neidhardt von Gneisenau’s famous reply to the Prussian King, who dismissed as “nothing more than poetry” von Gneisenau’s patriotic concerns in the early nineteenth century. “Religion,prayer, love of one’s ruler, love of the fatherland, what are these but poetry?” von Gneisenau asked. “Upon poetry is founded the security of the throne.”公仔箱論壇/ k* F# q. l7 Z4 I L5 E8 v; K) j! D
8 `2 d7 k9 |5 z: J: {5 V1 rTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Stable money, too, is the foundation of political order. We should not allow ourselves to be so overwhelmed by today’s crisis that we forget that.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。! B5 Q' d1 v: B. y1 V, {
" O2 }/ }4 k) n7 V1 t( b9 L A4 K* V; T8 X5.39.217.77:88987 W4 v, t6 T5 A% d1 v( }4 q- J) Z/ ^ Harold James is Professor of History and International Affairs at Princeton University and Professor of History at the European University Institute, Florence. He is the author of The Creation and Destruction of Value: The Globalization Cycle.作者: aa00 時間: 2011-12-6 11:27 AM
跨国企业开始为欧元区解体作准备 3 a) Q- R) d0 {) O0 x0 } 7 O l$ ^4 [" V( w- M% _" q# L ) ~" y7 D& n9 h7 }6 ETVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。5.39.217.77:8898; j! B2 j+ I: p4 o& I7 i8 I0 t" M
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欧元区解体还是那样遥远吗? , w7 Y$ L0 @8 C: O- {TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 ; d. `* e4 x7 C8 K) ~6 N2 `5.39.217.77:8898 3 q( c1 Q8 T4 u( O: o* a; u HTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。3 u6 d3 z& o' ^9 Z- G% m( W/ X
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英国《金融时报》日前发表文章称，欧洲许多大型企业已经开始为欧元区解体后的情形作打算。因为他们害怕，欧洲政治层无法掌控愈演愈烈的债务危机。 / Y- M7 A- i8 S- z. ?) }& Ntvb now,tvbnow,bttvbTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。2 l9 O1 q5 e' u
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欧洲债务危机的威胁已经不再仅仅存在于金融领域 ,许多实体企业现在也不得不将欧元区解体的这种可能性纳入制定未来发展战略的范畴。《金融时报》援引十几位跨国集团总裁表示，许多企业已经开始为欧元区可能解体制定应急方案。他们认为欧洲政治领导人目前无法抑制欧债危机扩散的局势，所以有必要防止这个不再是不可想象的一幕给公司带来负面冲击。当德国总理默克尔和法国总统萨科齐本月初提及希腊退出欧元区的可能性时，也就标志着欧盟高层领导人第一次敢于质疑这进行了13年的货币联盟实验。 ! i2 h' L& y7 ^0 S3 D5 n5.39.217.77:8898《金融时报》采访了跨国酒商帝亚吉欧（Diageo）欧洲部总裁摩根（Andrew Morgan），后者表示，该公司正在考虑"欧元区解体"将是怎样的情形。他指出："如果欧元区发生大规模的变动，那我们就将共同进入一个不同的境地。如果有国家离开欧元区，那它的货币将大幅贬值，使得进口产品的成本变得非常非常的昂贵。"5.39.217.77:8898" e* \2 {4 _5 e. a1 _ E- T8 n( P
可能受此影响的企业包括汽车制造商、能源公司以及生产消费品的企业。目前，他们正努力通过安全的渠道投资，并减少不必要的开支。像西门子这样的工程企业集团甚至已经建立了自己的银行，以此直接购买欧洲央行的投资产品。& D; b9 w; u' g4 ?; N6 G
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TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。# J2 }4 `& F, X
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