2 r2 L: n4 O. g" I7 m可能的情況是，隨著省級政府負債的上升，以及隱性貸款和違規金融行為等問題變得越來越難以忽略，中國政府會開始把銀行的角色定義得更清晰一些，並收緊銀行與地方和中央政府、與黨和商界精英及其利益集團進行合作的條件。然而，這必須是更廣泛的改革訴求的一部分。但重新定義黨在社會中角色的系統性改革——此類改革自1980年就已經開始了——仍然缺乏重大突破。眼下的現狀是可持續的，也符合共產黨的政治利益。因此，在短期到中期內，現狀很可能繼續維持不變。當然，從長期來看，必須進行改革——但改革總是最好留給以后再說的。 9 F9 [4 J" L1 D# F2 ^5.39.217.77:8898tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb) I0 A o c2 O; c9 Z
) Q: M1 s. g1 Y4 ]8 {4 H2 Q$ y5.39.217.77:8898Kerry Brown是英國皇家國際事務研究所亞洲問題負責人作者: felicity2010 時間: 2011-11-26 07:13 AM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-11-26 07:16 AM 編輯 TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。7 [: [2 _/ O: \! d0 v2 i5 y, D
H/ M# `3 \2 ~( q- \5 ?5 jBanks’ role won’t change until the status quo becomes unsustainable# g9 h! |8 L' L U) X# ^' X: x2 O V By Kerry Brown + \( R3 ?1 Y" I" Q) |9 ?, `公仔箱論壇 4 [9 d5 m; v( g! k5 W$ c , u# [5 d: A5 o3 [! U$ ]! h6 btvb now,tvbnow,bttvbThe function of banks in China is very particular, as Yukon Huang argues, but it is unlikely to change any time soon. When the country entered the World Trade Organisation almost exactly ten years ago,there was great excitement about the potential impact of liberalisation on its banks, with competition from outside, the opening up of new markets, and the general internationalisation of the biggest players. A decade on, we can see that banks still preserve their unique position in the Chinese firmament, as protected agents of the state, and of the Communist party in particular. Their remit is narrow, and they are used as accomplices for the provincial and central governments’ greater budgetary purposes.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb9 ~4 j( q1 _0 l" b9 x
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。! J" m' k1 M$ L1 Q/ N6 y' G g
Almost all Chinese banks are state-owned (with the possible exception of the partially-private Mingsheng bank), and that they march to the tune of government policy, in ways that banks elsewhere would find unimaginable. But to fundamentally change this would involve unleashing reforms in other areas of state-society-commerce relations, which the current leadership have shown they are profoundly resistant to. To them, the one lesson to be drawn from the global financial crises since 2008 is that state direction and involvement in enterprises, and in particular in those in the finance and banking sector, has been vindicated, and shown to be a good thing. All the shouting from outside China in the late 1990s urged them alter the banking model and to adopt ones more like those in the west,with high levels of entrepreneurship, but also risk. But if there is one thing this leadership dislike, that is risk.5.39.217.77:8898# g6 G' ]3 w. E. N' t) W+ d
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It could be that as levels of provincial indebtedness grow, and issues of hidden loans and financial irregularities become harder to ignore, the government will start to clarify the roles of banks a little more clearly, and set tighter conditions on how they work with local, and national, government, and with party and business elites and their interests. However, this would have to be part of a bigger push for reform. But systemic reforms redefining the role of the party within society – that have been ongoing since 1980 – have yet to have a major breakthrough. At the moment, status quo is sustainable, and in the party’s political interests. So status quo is likely to be, in the short to medium term, how things stay. In the long term, of course, there will have to be reform – but that will always remain best for another day. ' N1 ^6 T6 _) ATVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 % Q0 f* \- V( q5 C( T% yTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。+ m5 ^. @* l* W' R" Q- c k The writer is head of the Asia Programme at Chatham House
