6 E; t: B4 S2 K9 Y& Y & t9 h5 w3 N1 C; }/ C
2011-7-15' x7 W* R. A! y
tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb$ s2 @! I u9 z- Q/ O
k6 U: x* w4 x) O4 P3 o美國總統奧巴馬上任以來，面對各大難題往往能保持沉着冷靜、處變不驚，所謂旁觀者清、當局者迷，奧巴馬以抽離心態應付棘手問題，等到關鍵時刻才出手，總比硬碰蠻幹來得討好。不過，在提高國債上限談判方面，奧巴馬罕有地親力親為，他自周日起每天與共和黨國會領袖會面磋商，而更罕見的是，奧巴馬被指於會面期間竟大動肝火，警告共和黨國會眾議院領袖坎托不要逼他攤牌。 / b8 k; o0 ^- |% N2 x I4 y# {5.39.217.77:8898 公仔箱論壇: h N( N( {% Y. t7 d: ]: c
7 U0 {: C3 u9 I3 V+ ?美國要削減債務，得設法開源節流，但民主黨拒絕削減福利支出節流，惟恐基層苦上加苦，共和黨則不肯加稅，稱這窒礙投資和創造就業、令經濟雪上加霜。其實，兩黨可透過短期措施令美國暫時避過倒債，問題是，奧巴馬逼兩黨一次過傾掂數，確保明年大選期間不會出現瀕臨倒債的情況。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。4 W& h/ X V" P
公仔箱論壇! z0 u% w0 \6 s1 y( n
奧巴馬罕有地發火，是因為共和黨眾院第二號人物坎托，要求採取以削減支出為基礎的權宜之策、暫時解除危機。坎托向傳媒表示，奧巴馬向他發出「不要逼我攤牌」的警告，總統也揚言準備好將其主張交給選民定斷。觀乎奧巴馬威脅行使總統否決權，部分議員已開始構思如何收拾倒債的爛攤子。有民主黨參議員認為應優先發放社會福利金，多名共和黨議員建議先向軍人支薪。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb m8 A" `8 h& p
6 l' [( z1 \$ gTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。準備與共和黨對撼 9 ~" d4 ^% u& O' t K英國《每日電訊報》一篇報道，帶出一個發人深省的問題：奧巴馬為何在國債問題上發難？該報指，即使是「公共醫療保險」（public option）未被納入醫改案、關塔那摩監獄關不得、布殊時期的富人減稅優惠獲延長，也未至於令奧巴馬動怒，奧巴馬因美國瀕臨倒債失去一貫的沉着和冷靜，反映他已準備好在此一問題上與共和黨對撼。0 Y+ c) G$ f3 O
( s9 R7 h( _0 }3 y6 ?的確，奧巴馬為促成醫改案，不得不在「公共醫療保險」爭議上向共和黨人讓步，惹來醫改「半吊子」的批評，他在醫改案一役極其量只是慘勝。共和黨陣營受制於茶黨勢力，被迫在國債問題上與民主黨較勁，一旦玩出火，隨時重創美國經濟，誰也擔當不起，奧巴馬此際怒火中燒奉陪到底，共和黨隨時玩火自焚，一鋪「輸凸」。 # A, l& y, |, n& L8 {9 E6 W5.39.217.77:8898 % Y1 j* G3 d, G9 W- A0 a 5.39.217.77:8898+ X2 z* z5 C! l8 |. ]# q* _' O
1 f: {) C# c0 Dtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb穆迪示警美債不驚tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb! V$ e) S. }$ c3 ?/ e
金升銀漲，我明。風險避險貨幣各自精採，我理解。最令人莫名其妙的，是美債一樣那麼強。按照邏輯常理，穆迪連「老細」都無面畀，話到明美帝唔做嘢AAA評級無得留低，加上債限於8月2日「死線」前及時上調的機會正在下降（奧巴馬「雷霆大發」，共和黨領袖難以駕馭茶黨勢力），美債即使不遭投資者拋售（孳息急升），亦不應在利淡因素涌現下，活像什麼事也沒有發生，十年期債息徘徊於3厘以下。 ?1 \* N2 R$ l" ytvb now,tvbnow,bttvb1 _' w# G* S9 L5 }- t& Q. I8 R C
須知道，在歐債危機中，希臘、葡萄牙以至意大利，信貸評級一降再降，三國債息一升再升，資金同時尋找安全「港口」停泊，德債價升息跌，與歐豬息差愈拉愈闊……市場恐慌雖隨事態演變日甚於日，惟一切皆依足「教科書」指示發展，亂局中大有紋路。 # m. c( J2 ~& y, S4 g* g# {TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。5.39.217.77:8898" s: o$ J: K0 G" S+ d
美債剛好相反，評級機構「最后通牒」已發，白宮與國會則狀似「玩出火」，投資者卻好像什麼也看不見，十年債息在3厘樓下郁都唔郁。你當然可以話，穆迪不過怕招人話柄，不想予人「大細超」的感覺，針對美國示警，擺擺姿態而已﹔至於國債談判，時辰一到班「政治演員」夠鐘收工，協議於最后一刻必能達成，擔心什麼？9 [% {" R) D U4 |
, ^. P. n4 Z g. V! P0 z m債王重投美債懷抱 9 e7 A" W/ g1 K _, L" B' u0 E) xtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb大家如果真的這樣想，未免高估了投資者的「吉士」。老畢覺得，美債大買主，不是跟山姆大叔同坐一船的世界大國如中日，就是「富可敵國」的基金大戶機構投資者。 6 o5 i" V3 D) r* `- d! u. g' j& L; g2 e$ d6 m4 P
中日縱對美國有諸般不滿，減持美元資產亦隻會按部就班漸進落實，更不會在這種關鍵時刻大舉拋售，損人而不利己。機構投資者的動態反而足以左右大局，從債王格羅斯（Bill Gross）主理的PIMCO最新部署，大家對「最危險的地方最安全」這句話，應有一番全新體會。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb4 t1 A' ?4 k' ?/ {; d1 e( a
* r# d5 c) U' {8 O/ H5 U! vtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb眾所周知，債王年初高聲張揚，QE2結束後，美債因少了一個大買家，價格大跌孳息急升勢所難免，非但把美債清倉，還一度出手沽空。可是，從其最新投資組合持倉情況可見，美債佔PIMCO資產總值比重，由5月的5％增至6月的8％﹔美國以外發達國政府債券，從10％增至13％﹔現金比重則從35％降至29％。. e. W# C: T' _* ]
( y2 E' c0 ~ p- C) N6 J0 Z1 j/ ~債王基於什麼原因「唔嫁又嫁」，沽完又買，老畢唔知。然而，從PIMCO 5月份美債持倉佔資產總值5％可見，當時格羅斯已經重投這個市場，一改年初跟美債「劃清界線」的態度。美國政府在5月16日正式觸及14.3萬億美元國債上限，引發當前僵局。有趣的是，PIMCO正好在這個時候重投美債懷抱，並在6月加碼增持。5.39.217.77:8898/ u- w3 O0 |3 O( f# v2 m# E/ ]" s
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。! |; h4 j' U$ O4 E/ G% c
債王到底在博什麼？老畢估計，格羅斯看到的是，美國國債上限若真的無法在8月2日前上調，華府便有必要在千頭萬緒大大小小的開支中定出優次，如認為力保美國信用乃重中之重，以稅收集中應付到期債息開支，仍然綽綽有余。這當然意味為數不少的政府部門得暫停運作，退休人士社保支票或有一段時間沒有著落，惟美國債權人不虞遭拖債，整個美國社會在這個非常時期還可自動「瘦身」節約，而財政部短期內無法發新債冚舊債，令美債供求突然改善……再說，美國若真的違約，受累的豈限於美債，股票商品等風險資產，可以不被質嗎？資金要找避風港，到頭來會不會又是流入……美債？公仔箱論壇/ m% C8 Q$ r7 l3 {( B& A
公仔箱論壇9 `+ }& e1 p% J1 \% z( i
本文見報日，歐盟將公布銀行壓力測試結果。近期，歐豬主權債信貸違約掉期（CDS）大幅抽升，金融機構持有大量歐洲國家債券，備受拖累在所難免。意國最大銀行UniCredit股價上周一再跌停板，五癆七傷，就是明証。 ) l# H+ u8 Q% b, a, z6 k; H5.39.217.77:8898) p" `- y; x* b% Z( C
美國研究機構Bespoke自金融海嘯以來，一直跟進環球銀行及証券行違約風險，並按市值加權自制金融板塊CDS指數，以便投資者定期監察金融機構違約風險。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。; \6 b: q6 y7 b6 H4 g, r5 {
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。+ D) i0 }0 e, j& n+ j. v+ h
今年3至6月標普金融股指數下跌，CDS指數上升，惟后者升勢不如想象明顯。美股在6月24日至7月7日大幅反彈，CDS指數微跌。近日金融股表現疲弱，CDS指數卻沒有明顯變化。由此可見，歐債危機雖令個別國家主權債CDS今年狂升，惟單以金融板塊而論，信貸交易商表現相對冷靜。作者: aa00 時間: 2011-7-16 11:00 PM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-7-17 04:16 AM 編輯 $ d: D( x2 Z+ Q7 c # _ i. f5 I5 R3 {; Atvb now,tvbnow,bttvbIssues Holding Up Debt Ceiling Agreement The New York TimesTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。4 c+ \1 T9 b' \* Y! o; p; ?7 T: B
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。# U3 K9 p$ j2 c' [: J
5.39.217.77:8898 y) L, n- b$ D1 N
As the deadline to raise the debt ceiling looms, many Republicans are demanding changes in benefit programs as a condition of increasing the debt limit.Congressional Democrats oppose cuts, but President Obama has pushed for a sweeping budget agreement that aims to save $4 trillion over 10 years through a combination of spending cuts and new tax revenues.- c6 ?* k/ p# k V
4 M7 r" z7 L4 C, F/ W Medicare $ x! A+ ?1 ]5 F$ x7 r( u! m0 t公仔箱論壇 ) K1 \" _! v* t: f8 ~4 Stvb now,tvbnow,bttvbIssue Medicare spending is expected to increase to $970 billion in 2021, from $520billion in 2010. Officials have said that the program, which provides healthcare to people 65 and older, is not sustainable in its current form.* S9 ~+ r2 n" k( b7 i, c
: h% @" `9 o1 _4 l0 H: h" Z5.39.217.77:8898What the Democrats say Mr. Obama has offered to slow the growth of Medicare spending, possibly by as much as hundreds of billions of dollars over 12 years and more than $1 trillion in the following decade, by leveraging Medicare’s buying power. But he has not provided details.Many Democrats see Medicare cuts as undermining their political case against the House Republican plan to turn it into a “voucher” program. $ \/ f5 d: P6 V6 u/ T& c) H# @ / I8 B# B. d2 r' ?1 Q" e公仔箱論壇What the Republicans say Earlier this year,Representative Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin proposed a plan to give future beneficiaries a fixed amount of money to buy private insurance. On Tuesday, Representative Eric Cantor of Virginia presented 27 proposals that he said would save up to $353 billion over 10 years. They include charging co-payments for laboratory tests and home health care, and increasing charges to high-income beneficiaries. ' e" f4 G7 i: e' o: c5.39.217.77:8898 8 v; J0 j& g0 k+ Q* W Z, f' J/ C0 rtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb公仔箱論壇8 B7 I' d3 G3 Z0 K }9 k Medicaid y2 o$ D/ R% B# B! ?, r/ y% tTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 , v4 d: `* T2 m: R! H0 J" s) {- o5 yTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Issue Federal spending on Medicaid, the nation’s low-income health program financed jointly by the federal government and the states, is expected to increase to$560 billion in 2021, from $273 billion in 2010. The Obama administration injected billions of dollars into the program as the recession deepened two years ago.5.39.217.77:88987 A& g0 h* U) g/ `& l, ]$ f
( t8 y1 r2 _4 f: j [% m9 w2 v' A. m ; X% a9 Q W; s, z( y/ DTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。What the Democrats say White House officials have indicated that they could accept savings of $100 billion or more over 10years, much to the dismay of many House Democrats. Critics say the cuts would impair access to care for the poor and shift costs to the states, which are facing a large expansion in Medicaid eligibility and enrollment, scheduled to start in 2014 under the new health care law.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。7 x/ o! ]1 M4 f* @" K& D
( Z; b, W) ?3 |2 g" j0 e" E5 x8 iTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。What the Republicans say The proposal by Mr.Ryan called for transforming Medicaid to a block grant, with a lump sum of money given to each state, an idea opposed by Democrats. He said his plan would save $771 billion over the next decade. Mr. Cantor on Tuesday proposed $100billion in savings from Medicaid over 10 years, the same amount sought in a White House proposal. 5 q: d: J: |8 @9 l( a; sTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。* c% S- b& J& Z! u J: c+ C Social Security公仔箱論壇% p3 P9 l0 k% ~6 i9 h
* z( Y( a. S( C$ x+ Z
Issue Spending on Social Security, which comprises more than a fifth of the federal budget, is projected to rise to $1.3 trillion in 2021, from $701 billion in2010. In May, the Social Security Administration estimated that under current law the program’s trust fund would be exhausted by 2036.5 P$ a `4 v5 z/ q
4 z& m, c0 K$ B& w5 B- k What the Democrats say Mr. Obama has expressed interest in large savings from the use of a different measure of inflation to reduce the annual cost-of-living adjustment in Social Security benefits. But Congressional Democrats have joined with lobbyists for older Americans to oppose the changes, saying that Social Security is not the cause of the deficit. 9 T* m3 T/ }" _$ Y + x- r" T2 j& q' p8 n6 S$ Ztvb now,tvbnow,bttvbWhat the Republicans say Senator Tom Coburn of Oklahoma has said he supports the idea of an alternative measure of inflation,known as the chain-weighted version of the Consumer Price Index, on the ground that it is more accurate. Lobbyists for older Americans criticized this proposal, which could reduce federal spending by more than $110 billion over 10 years.5.39.217.77:8898, A. E, u! k. t4 E& p
% P4 O" J4 ~+ g7 q Tax revenues 6 F" C2 x7 h8 V& I: h 6 J# Q$ i1 e7 S0 w0 C) ^+ t公仔箱論壇Issue In 2001 and 2003, Congress passed tax cuts proposed by President George W. Bush,which were set to expire at the end of 2010. President Obama reached a deal with Republicans to extend the cuts at all income levels for two years. Whether to let the cuts expire for any income group and how to close corporate loopholes have been points of contention in the negotiations. ( d l# p9 D( @+ n 1 n+ R5 A! J9 w$ c3 X* t% C2 T1 A公仔箱論壇What the Democrats say Mr. Obama has called for allowing the Bush tax cuts to expire for top earners, but noted that the change would not take effect before 2013. The White House has also proposed closing loopholes or other tax breaks for owners of corporate jets, oil and gas companies and hedge funds, changes that could raise about $130 billion.6 p2 a# V z/ Y) P3 l
' N6 p+ Y" F( K4 {- L! |9 _) TTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。7 O, B$ ]- I. H! J What the Republicans say Speaker John A. Boehner of Ohio had indicated willingness to consider $1 trillion in new revenue, with most of the money to be generated through an overhaul of the tax code. But he backed away from that plan when it drew criticism as a potential tax increase and he has declared any tax increases off the table.作者: felicity2010 時間: 2011-7-17 04:17 AM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-7-17 04:19 AM 編輯 7 n0 ]1 A# R/ {- H- | [( n4 @* ]+ E: } w House Republicans Plan Vote on Deficit : Q4 q. u7 k r5.39.217.77:8898 5 w+ U* G4 c3 N+ A公仔箱論壇By CARL HULSE and ROBERT PEAR July 15, 2011 7 B- g8 u6 L: r& p公仔箱論壇tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb( s% Q1 U- [* \' c
公仔箱論壇1 a0 d1 I7 i" D+ X! h
3 S e1 q8 w y! N/ X- N
With budget negotiations with the White House stalled, Speaker John A. Boehner of Ohio said Friday that the House would vote next week on a three-part plan to cut the deficit, cap federal spending as a share of the economy and amend the Constitution to require a balanced budget. 7 X8 b. [4 t2 Q3 f4 Z* W I# K3 b公仔箱論壇" e! x" Z9 S$ G& n5 c5 w% U6 e
The plan, which has a companion in the Senate, would represent the House position in the final stages of the debate as the federal government nears the limit of its borrowing power. While it would not appear to have a chance of passing the Democrat-controlled Senate, and President Obama is opposed, it could provide a legislative avenue to increasing the debt limit as it makes it way through Congress.6 F; h/ u, _7 @; a p# y' u
; H* v0 {) I f2 S+ o% E! \: \* Z5.39.217.77:8898The House Republican leader, Representative Eric Cantor of Virginia, said the House would move on its own because the president’s deficit-reduction proposals fell far short of what was needed. , u' a% S0 h( H0 W5 ]公仔箱論壇 % Z" y% P6 t& o3 m5.39.217.77:8898In the budget blueprint passed by the House this year, Mr. Cantor said, “We sought$6.2 trillion in cuts over 10 years.’’ By contrast, he said, in debt negotiations at the White House this week, “the president and Democrats have offered perhaps $1.5 trillion of savings.’’ 1 Z! M! d& {- h4 J8 u. s5.39.217.77:8898 3 |9 F+ W1 G) H+ qMr.Cantor pushed back against Democratic complaints that the Republicans had not offered any concessions, but he said the Republicans would not permit federal spending to continue on its current trajectory. 3 Y- f4 ^( E7 G+ QTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 * _; y+ k2 N* S$ a) j“We are not going to allow this kind of spending to continue,’’ Mr. Cantor said.“We don’t have the money.’’公仔箱論壇, r, m3 C: r2 D3 q' k$ m, q
; C% T, Q/ e. N% P) _9 `公仔箱論壇Mr.Boehner left the door open to the compromise plan floated by the Senate Republican leader, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, who has described his proposal as a last-ditch option. It would call for Congress to vote on whether or not to disapprove a debt limit increase, an approach that could avoid a government default by allowing Republicans to register their disapproval of the increase but still allowing it to pass.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。, R, ^$ g# s2 V
tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb! a$ R+ N- w9 d" h$ m, D& C* z: ~' z
“We are far from the time for a last-ditch effort,’’ Mr. Boehner said, signaling that Congress still had many days and perhaps weeks of work to do on the debt.
