+ U3 ~6 j. s2 h! e* Y( o6 {4 t5.39.217.77:8898美國緊張，以色列更緊張，如埃及「變色」，則以色列慘矣，本來就無寧日的中東恐將烽火連連。以色列過去幾年雖與加薩走廊的哈瑪斯打個不停，亦入侵過黎巴嫩，但她和埃及的戰略伙伴關係卻使以色列得以全力發展經濟，而不必擔心阿拉伯世界最大軍事強國埃及趁火打劫。以色列軍隊所使用的石油，三分之二購自埃及，而埃及又幫以色列阻擋軍火走私到加薩走廊。以色列全國上下目前都在焦慮地注視埃及的動亂，他們最怕的是穆斯林兄弟會掌權，廢除以埃和平協定。 # j8 [7 X& x* D. B, ]4 U2 \& t5.39.217.77:8898% N ~4 M2 e9 J, O
阿拉伯世界沒有一個國家有民主機制，也沒有一個國家存在能夠馬上接班的反對黨，埃及亦不例外。曾獲諾貝爾和平獎的前國際原子能總署署長艾巴拉迪，也許可以出任過渡性質的領導人，等到今年九月大選再選出新總統。埃及的命運雖由人民來決定，但埃及的前途卻被軍隊所左右。從當年發起不結盟運動的納瑟，到簽定以埃和平協議的沙達特，到今天搖搖欲墜的穆巴拉克等，三個國家領導人都是軍頭出身。軍隊在埃及政治與社會中占有舉足輕重的地位與力量，這是埃及走向民主政治的大障礙。5.39.217.77:8898. ?( y. O. T* I. E. R2 t tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb# w/ k4 S e- l. p" K8 E1 e
人面獅身像正靜觀後世子孫何去何從！作者: felicity2010 時間: 2011-2-2 07:21 AM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-2-2 07:27 AM 編輯 , D0 {6 O7 T0 H- o- p1 L, _2 Q5 s* \5 l: d5.39.217.77:8898/ W$ J6 H6 C: j: f Egyptian regime begins to reveal its strategy tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb$ p; h, Q/ l+ D, o) c( A
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By Simon Tisdall Guardian公仔箱論壇( H; P" ]; V9 J F5 U7 ]
# o( E7 N/ T8 e# KAfter a week spent caught in the headlights, the Egyptian regime is showing signs of assembling a strategy to extricate itself from its perilous predicament. Whether the strategy can work is another matter entirely.1 u% V) S( n2 G0 z2 {$ l1 z$ u
6 ?: Y0 n' ^0 t& s5 t* W. Jtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbThe regime's survival plan centres on Omar Suleiman, the head of intelligence, who is President Hosni Mubarak's close confidant and the newly installed vice-president. At this point, Suleiman is the most powerful man in Egypt, backed by the military (from which he hails), the security apparatus and a frightened ruling elite hoping to salvage something from the wreckage.5.39.217.77:8898" y9 C% D3 G$ M1 s) p" F- E' `
6 w6 p; T' h6 ntvb now,tvbnow,bttvbSuleiman is, in effect, heading a military junta at this point, with all the principal civilian power positions – the presidency, the vice-presidency, the premiership, the defence and interior ministries – held by former senior officers, and with the military itself in full support.5.39.217.77:88989 E$ p/ p8 q" p+ ~7 D! B$ F
+ q1 {" P" b% n2 k! J$ x公仔箱論壇Mubarak is now reduced to the role of figurehead, sheltering behind this clique. But they will not sacrifice him if they can avoid it. There will be no ignominious flight to Saudi Arabia,like that of Tunisia's deposed president, Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali. Mubarak's pride won't allow it; the military's pride won't allow it. ' f* s" Y3 P$ ?" C `1 \& BTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 4 | E2 J3 v0 aThey probably now accept that the old man will have to go, sooner rather than later. But they seem determined that when his departure comes, it will be dignified, and at a time of their collective choosing. As they see it, the honour of the nation demands no less. 1 w4 R0 E% m0 X9 j/ e9 J1 k( q3 y5.39.217.77:8898 - ^* w8 \4 E. {" O) K, T OThe army's pledge not to use violence against peaceful protesters was a canny political move that had Suleiman's fingerprints all over it. If the armed forces stick to that vow today, it could help avoid the sort of chaotic,escalating confrontations with demonstrators that, in other countries, have turned unrest into fully fledged revolution. 6 E+ N) A j! C# a! GTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。5 s+ r) w! {: t" G3 J) A3 T
The renunciation of force will also play well in the White House and the US media. It meets one of the key concerns voiced by Barack Obama: that a regime closely allied to the US not be seen to be shooting down its own citizens, whose only crime is to seek greater freedom. 8 F' q5 Z1 z+ i; t! I3 itvb now,tvbnow,bttvb * W1 W# Z1 R0 } D2 itvb now,tvbnow,bttvbWhat the army spokesman meant when he said the military recognised the "legitimacy" of the protesters' demands is open to interpretation, no doubt deliberately. It cannot be assumed this meant Suleiman and the army agree that Mubarak must resign. More probably, it was their way of appearing reasonable and open to negotiation. Part of Suleiman's plan is immediate talks with the opposition, however defined. Again, this posture will reduce western pressure on the regime.公仔箱論壇; x, B: u& _* r; S! ?
4 r* H+ K+ t' }+ m5 h8 \The regime may also be hoping that the lawlessness and looting that erupted in several cities will convince the people,particularly middle-class Cairenes, that revolution is too risky. Mubarakhas always symbolised order. The prospect of chaos is a good argument for caution.5.39.217.77:88984 y" T$ e4 H; m& a
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Meanwhile, there were signs today that the security forces are closely marshalling the protests, attempting to exert maximum control without actually crushing them.1 i2 j6 {1 Q+ v% I
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Likewise, rising food and fuel prices, shortages,lost earnings, closed businesses, falling exports and reduced tourism caused by the unrest will have a growing impact on ordinary working people at the heart of the protests. The regime's strategy appears to be wait them out, to wear them out, to hope that, in time, the fervour and size of the protests will abate – that literally, they will run out of energy. ! a% D `" Z9 [, F % G$ G5 v5 _/ _) ?/ k+ WTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。On the political front, a proffered timetable for fresh parliamentary and presidential elections, possibly this autumn,coinciding with the end of Mubarak's term, under some form of international or independent supervision, may soon be forthcoming – another way for the regime to escape the morass. Mubarak could then hand over power in the normal way (though it would be abnormal for Egypt). His son, Gamal Mubarak, presumably, would play no future part.公仔箱論壇$ r% s5 O* \- [0 s4 a# z W# b
( \5 @# s# \' k+ t6 e) pJust how honest and open new elections might be,once the pressure on the streets has abated, is questionable. Whether they would usher in a truly new era for Egypt is highly doubtful at this point. At this moment, there remains all to play for. But through history, the fate of revolutions is to be hijacked. Egyptians will hope they don't get fooled again.
