[時事討論] 不戰不和不走不是辦法盧峯

本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-2-12 06:50 AM 編輯
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不戰不和不走不是辦法 盧峯

從星期四晚上開始,各主要西方傳媒不斷播發同一條消息:埃及總統穆巴拉克即將宣佈下台。往後幾小時,不管是 BBC、 CNN、 ABC都以革命行將成功處理這宗重大事件,其他新聞都要讓路,大批專家、分析員、革命廣場上的示威者接受訪問,大談革命後的新秩序,高呼新埃及行將誕生, 高喊人民力量萬歲。公仔箱論壇3 M3 `3 M) J1 C5 t/ _
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好不容易等到夜半四時,穆巴拉克終於在電視上露面,發表那份被傳媒預測為「下台宣言」的演說。誰知道這位主政三十年的強人帶來的是反高潮。他宣佈的僅僅是把部份權力移交副總統蘇萊曼,卻堅持會留任至九月份任期屆滿,新政府上場為止。在發表講話時,穆巴拉克一點不像鬥敗公雞或喪家之犬,而是像受了傷的野獸那樣充滿驕傲與不以為然,一派隨時準備反撲的模樣。5.39.217.77:8898' R) ^6 K" Y: p
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在大型群眾運動中,傳言、謠言是必然的成份。當年八九民運,天安門廣場上就不時傳出這樣那樣的政治耳語、傳言,一時說鎮壓將至,一時說李鵬下台,一時說鄧小平被蒙在鼓裏……真真假假,真中有假,傳的聽的都搞不清楚。這樣的情況不難理解,大型群眾運動龍蛇混雜,各方勢力人士都有。發放傳言製造聲勢,攻擊對手又或是令對手錯估形勢是慣用伎倆。更何況兵荒馬亂,甚麼事包括先前認為不可思議的事都好像變得有可能,都好像成功在望。出現穆巴拉克將會宣佈下台的傳言並且越傳越盛實在不足為奇。

當然,埃及民眾持續上街抗爭,迫使穆巴拉克及他的政府一再讓步,削弱了穆巴拉克的權力,也是他下台傳言的重要基礎。那為甚麼穆巴拉克還能勉強挺下去?
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關鍵是埃及軍方保持團結,沒有出現倒戈,沒有進一步逼宮。正如我們較早前說過,軍隊是埃及最有組織、最多資源、最強大的政治力量,比甚麼政黨、穆斯林兄弟會、facebook群組強得多,實在得多。軍隊在今次上街抗爭中刻意保持中立,不鎮壓又不支持,它的算盤大概是逼退想父傳子的穆巴拉克但保持軍人軍隊主導的政治秩序。這樣一方面可以保持埃及政局穩定,另一方面也能確保軍隊的超然地位。

當穆巴拉克承諾退任,並令兒子退出接班行列後,軍隊的基本目標已達到。往下來要做的是盡可能保持原來的政治秩序,或只是對體制、秩序作些微修改,避免大變。既然不打算來一場變天,代表現存政治秩序的穆巴拉克便有他的利用價值,便成為一隻可用的棋子。一方面避免政治真空,避免權力流入體制外的人手裏;另一方面則可以成為「擋箭牌」,承擔改革不順利時的政治責任。大概就因為這樣的盤算,軍隊高層選擇要穆巴拉克交權而不是下台。

另一方面,埃及的金主也有點影響力。這個金主不是美國,區區十五億美元軍事援助算不了甚麼。5.39.217.77:8898" I" O( G" z6 ]4 G+ Y, r) O- k" E
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真正的金主是沙地阿拉伯等專制政權。對他們來說,埃及一旦落入「人民」手中,整個地區的政治生態肯定受影響,甚至可能鼓勵他們的人民有樣學樣。讓穆巴拉克體面及有序離任,一方面可避免埃及落入激進政治力量手中;另一方面也可以削弱人民力量旋風,防止骨牌效應。以沙地的豐厚石油收益,花三幾十億美元支援埃及政權,讓他們派派錢平息民憤肯定比較坐看埃及變天划算。 Q) e, u" U3 F

只是目前埃及軍隊及政府這種「不戰不和不走」的策略不可能長期延續。假若軍方堅持保存現有政治秩序,鎮壓流血將難以避免。

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felicity2010

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發表於 2011-2-12 06:51 AM | 只看該作者

本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-2-12 06:55 AM 編輯 5.39.217.77:8898, y! c  e# @* D
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穆巴拉克下台
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埃及局勢風雲譎變。埃及執政黨和軍官前天(周四)放出風聲指 82歲的總統穆巴拉克( Hosni Mubarak)將宣佈交權辭職,殊不知他最後僅宣佈下放權力給副總統蘇萊曼(Omar Suleiman),令聚集在首都開羅解放廣場準備慶祝的 25萬示威者大失所望,高舉鞋子洩憤,號召全國 2,000萬人上街。昨天逾 150萬人響應,更有軍官投身示威。示威浪潮浩浩蕩蕩,穆巴拉克由開羅避走紅海,蘇萊曼於香港時間今晨零時發表電視講話,宣佈穆巴拉克下台,權力交給軍隊。7 o1 ?0 g- \  X# y
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矢志推翻穆巴拉克 30年鐵腕統治的示威浪潮,昨天踏入第18日,在情緒大起大落後,更添幾分悲憤,單是開羅就有 100萬人上街。數以萬計民眾一清早聚集在解放廣場,中午祈禱時不少示威者都在飲泣,領禱教士每次提及穆巴拉克,群眾都高呼「下台!下台!」有示威者在地上畫驢子剪影,加上譏諷穆巴拉克字句:「我們收到你的訊息,知道你是隻笨驢了。」
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示威者繼續死守解放廣場,也主動出擊擴大示威範圍,通宵在國營電視台、國會和內閣辦公室外紮營聚集,並首次操向總統府,又揚言發起全國大罷工,癱瘓全國。逾 1萬名示威者在國營電視台外組成人鏈,阻止員工上班。總統府外有 3,000示威者聚集,五名老婦高呼:「滾蛋!你還留下來幹甚麼? 30年夠了!」
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第二大城市亞歷山大港也有 50萬示威者上街,並向穆巴拉克行宮遊行。南部艾斯尤特市 4萬人遊行往政府和保安部隊建築物。西奈半島多個城鎮有幾十萬人上街,在艾里什市示威者與警察衝突下,至少 1死 20傷。蘇彝士市的示威者,更佔據了多座政府建築物。
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中層軍官加入示威行列
開羅逾百萬人上街示威,最終迫使穆巴拉下台5.39.217.77:8898* K' L3 k1 T+ o$ j, s
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主宰局勢的軍方,把示威者情緒玩弄於股掌之上。埃及最高軍事委員會前天開會後發表「一號公報」,表示支持民眾合理訴求,令人們以為穆巴拉克即將下台,昨天再開會後發表的「二號公報」,卻表態支持穆巴拉克留任至 9月大選的過渡計劃。總統府外一名示威者向宣讀聲明的軍官說:「你們令我們失望,我們的希望都寄託在你們身上。」
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但部份中層軍官自行脫隊,加入示威行列。陸軍少校舒曼交出武器,指他和另外 15名軍階由上尉到中校的軍官,都加入示威,說他們參軍時宣誓「保護國家」,是跟示威民眾的目標一致。
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埃及民眾前天都以為穆巴拉克鐵定下台的了,最高軍事委員會的「一號公報」,開羅地區軍事指揮官羅恩尼向解放廣場示威者說「你們所有要求今天將得到滿足」,都令示威者以為革命快成功,晚上25萬群眾聚集在解放廣場,又拖兒帶女又派糖的一片喜慶氣氛,等穆巴拉克在全國電視講話宣佈下台。
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穆巴拉克一開口,卻令群眾不能置信,死寂一片。他只說下放部份權力給蘇萊曼,表明會留在埃及,看守 9月大選前由蘇萊曼主導的民主改革,稱會提出修憲放寬參選總統資格、恢復由司法部門監管選舉、引入總統任期上限,並宣佈廢除憲法一條授權總統下令軍法審訊涉恐怖主義平民的條文,重申「恢復安全穩定」後會廢除緊急狀態法。5.39.217.77:8898' {0 |* A+ Z- a) i" p

總統權力移交軍隊
穆巴拉克講話說到一半,示威者已向大屏幕和揚聲器高舉鞋子,向穆巴拉克表達最大的不滿,「狗!」和「大話
精!」喝罵聲此起彼落。示威者既失望流淚,也義憤填膺,高呼:「不要穆巴拉克。不要蘇萊曼。一個是懦夫,另一個是替身。」反對派領袖之一、國際原子能機構前總幹事巴拉迪( Mohamed ElBaradei)稱:「埃及要爆發了。軍隊必須馬上拯救國家。」TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。0 l9 a3 R4 \4 a! }- i* S, V7 [

示威浪潮洶湧,穆巴拉克證實已避走紅海渡假勝地沙姆沙伊赫( Sharm el-Sheikh)。他出走開羅後,他的心腹蘇萊曼更宣佈他下台:「鑑於國家形勢險峻,總統穆巴拉克決定辭去總統職務,並責成最高軍事委員會接掌國家事務。」

獨裁統治 30年的穆巴拉克終於下台,埃及人再由原來的悲情和激憤,爆發震天歡呼聲,上街揮舞國旗。埃及這場持續 18天、在社交網發起的「 facebook革命」成功了,這場革命的象徵人物、 Google之子古奈姆( Wael Ghonim)隨即在微型網誌 Twitter發 twit寫道:「恭祝埃及,罪犯終於從王宮出走了。」美國、德國等西方國家都讚揚埃及人促成了歷史性的轉變。獨裁強人一去,中東和阿拉伯世界勢力如何再洗
牌,已是後話。
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在開羅解放廣場示威的羣眾，昨日知道總統穆巴拉克下台後，歡喜若狂tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb8 I$ m* W3 ?( C7 B( K" O2 e
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felicity2010

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發表於 2011-2-12 06:56 AM | 只看該作者

本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-2-12 07:03 AM 編輯 5.39.217.77:8898$ F2 z( F% w( ?

Open letter: Mubarak, we loathe youtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb! {: [5 y# H" K. d! y# H
Khaled DiabTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。0 W$ F, Z. W: a6 ~$ U7 l

Mr Mubarak, you have the extraordinary knack for snatching mediocrity from the jaws of greatness. But the Egyptian people will write their own future.

To our beloathed leader,
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Never have so many people awaited one of your speeches with such breathless anticipation. Sadly, for you, it was neither out of love for their leader nor out of admiration for your oratorical skills.5.39.217.77:8898" ^+ L- ?* H$ E0 X' }* B" E& \
The whole of Egypt,most of the Arab world and millions across the globe were glued to their television sets believing that they would finally hear you utter those magic,wonderful, sweet, magic words. Everyone was excited. The army had said earlier that all the people’s demands would be met when you addressed the nation. Even the Americans seemed convinced that your resignation was in the bag, and Barack Obama waxed lyrical about how the Egyptian people were writing history.

But they are writing it no thanks to you, as you seem hell-bent on rewriting it. The only help you have given is in the most negative sense. You have succeeded in unifying a nation against a common enemy, yourself. You have the extraordinary knack for snatching mediocrity from the jaws of greatness. You had one final chance to redeem yourself, to salvage some modicum of a legacy by announcing, using the presidential decrees you’ve abused for so long, sweeping reforms to meet all the protesters demands – including a transitional government made up of a ‘Council of the Wise’, free and fair democratic elections, and the limiting of the powers of the presidency – and then resigned.

Instead, as is your wont, you failed to rise to the occasion. When you finally appeared on air, a couple of hours late, you delivered a recorded message that was a study in mundanness and cliché. With the pallor of a made-up corpse in an ill-lit funeral parlour, you spoke like someone who lost all feeling.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。( E: h$ n2 |3 z! R' F

Even when you finally expressed sympathy for the fallen, you did it like a sociopath, without emotion, without any acknowledgement that it was your security apparatus and goons who caused these deaths. And when you sought to express empathy with the protesters, you employed a tone of contempt and condescension by attributing it all to youthful zeal. “I was young, too,” you claimed. Yes, you were, in the Jurassic age. You droned on and on and on again about the six decades of service and sacrifice you’d given to the nation, as if anyone had forced you to do that in a country that would’ve been happy if you’d retired a decade ago, while most wouldn’t have been too disappointed – or even cognisant – if you’d never become president.( P5 K( A. o7 z* V' q

You arrogantly called us your children, but we’re not, we’re your hostages,although I managed to escape your cloying clutches years ago. You said it was out of concern for the well-being of Egyptians and Egypt that you would not cede your throne until September to ensure an orderly transition of power.
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But what does orderly mean to you, Mr Mubarak? Does it mean finally letting the Egyptian people enjoy their full freedom and exercise their will? Or, more ominously, does it mean restoring your idea of  “order”, waiting for the protesters to disperse, and then crushing dissent?TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。: R0 v2 f0 x) ?6 J/ D9 I3 B

Well, those days are long, Mr ex-president, the game has changed and so have the rules of engagement. Although I remember how much people feared you, and how much more they feared your predecessors, you cannot intimidate or frighten the Egyptian people anymore, as they have bravely demonstrated day in and day out, and as their determination now to march on your palace eloquently shows.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。7 W4 L8 P# \! J& `- E

You claim that you are not clinging on to power like some addict who can’t live without a hit refusing to let go of his needle, but because you want to avoid the chaos. But can’t you see that it is only your departure that will avert anarchy? Or do you mean that you are Egypt and Egypt is you?
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Over the years, you had so many chances to leave with dignity and pride, and be hailed as the father of Egyptian democracy. After the assassination of your predecessor and the tumultuous last years of his reign, you could have grasped that the Egyptians were already desperate for dignity and freedom and you could have acted as a temporary transitional leader to take the country to that safe port.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb/ y4 L4 l" o  I8 n' d
Every time, you came to rewrite the constitution to allow you to run for another term in office, you faced increasingly mounting opposition, yet you refused to read the writing on the wall. In 2005, you could’ve made Egypt’s first multi-candidate election a truly democratic race, and perhaps have even been re-elected, but this time with a true mandate, but you let that opportunity slip away from you, as well. And now you and Egypt must reap the storm.
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However, despite all the chaos and anarchy you have spread, I am glad of one thing: that when Egyptians gain their freedom it will be because of their own actions and determination, and despite you, not thanks to you. Egyptians will be able to look back on this time with the pride that when the moment of reckoning came they managed to seize their rights with their own hands, and not bestowed upon them by some magnanimous greater power.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。& Q4 Q5 b  `* \5 k3 z
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Egyptians have discovered their own latent power and, for that, I applaud them.

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看看吧！人民的力量何其大！而國際社會對穆巴拉克辭職下臺，普遍表示歡迎。
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美國總統奧巴馬在白宮發表電視講話說，穆巴拉克下臺，是回應人民改變的渴求，但這不是改變的結束，而是剛剛開始。奧巴馬認為，埃及軍方必須確保一個可信賴的權力過渡。他承諾美國將繼續充當埃及的“朋友和夥伴”，提供一切必要援助。公仔箱論壇' Y* \+ \4 _+ w( s' N% |

　　聯合國秘書長潘基文說，巴拉克辭職是“歷史性時刻”，他尊重這一“符合埃及人民廣泛利益的艱難決定”，促請埃及完成有秩序、具透明度及和平的權力過渡。

　　阿拉伯聯盟秘書長穆薩說，穆巴拉克下臺是在埃及建立全國共識的開始。在巴勒斯坦被占領土上，巴勒斯坦人也在舉行慶祝，他們高唱埃及國歌。控制加沙地帶的哈馬斯運動表示，這只是埃及革命的開始。

　　歐洲理事會常任主席範龍佩、歐盟委員會主席巴羅佐、歐盟外交和安全政策高級代表阿什頓發表聯合聲明，對穆巴拉克辭去埃及總統職務表示歡迎。

　　英國首相卡梅倫呼籲埃及儘快邁向文人及民主管治。德國外長韋斯特韋勒對穆巴拉克辭職以及埃及國內即將進行的政治改變表示歡迎。俄羅斯外長拉伕羅夫表示，期望埃及可以回復穩定及確保政府可以正常運作。

但是，埃及局勢何去何從呢？還有得看耶！

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